[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 12 issued 2330 UT on 01 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 2 09:30:13 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 110/60

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Region 1470 (S15E21) produced a C3.9 flare at 0443 UT; 
other low-level C flares were also observed. A weak CME associated 
with a disappearing filament in the south-west quadrant was first 
observed in SDO images at ~0430 UT; the CME is unlikely to be 
geo-effective. A new region (S20W38) has emerged rapidly over 
the past day. Solar wind parameters have been undisturbed and 
should remain mostly undisturbed over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100111
      Darwin               2   11100102
      Townsville           5   12211212
      Learmonth            3   21010211
      Norfolk Island       1   11000110
      Camden               1   01100101
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               3   11101211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                6   23211211
      Mawson              14   22110036
      Davis                8   22222223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0111 1001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May     6    Quiet
03 May     5    Quiet
04 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet at Antarctic stations with a major storm 
period at Mawson 21-2330 UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 May    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      13-20 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      14-17 and 21-22 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      02-08 UT and to 35% 12-17 UT at Darwin, depressions to
      20% 02-05 and 09-16 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 20% at some stations 00-17 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      at times.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May    65    Near predicted monthly values
03 May    65    Near predicted monthly values
04 May    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible at times at all latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    28200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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