[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 12 issued 2328 UT on 30 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 1 09:28:12 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 114/65

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 May             02 May             03 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Region 1465 (S18W95) produced a C3.9 flare at 0738 UT 
in conjunction with a CME which is not expected to be geo-effective. 
Region 1471 (S22E45) produced a number of C flares, the largest 
a C6 at 1041 UT. ACE observations shows the solar wind was undisturbed. 
Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly undisturbed over 
the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            4   22111111
      Norfolk Island       2   12100010
      Camden               1   01110000
      Canberra             0   00100001
      Hobart               3   12111101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   00120000
      Casey                5   23301011
      Mawson               4   13100013
      Davis                7   23221122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2211 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 May     6    Quiet
02 May     7    Quiet to unsettled
03 May     5    Quiet

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Apr    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
      40% 05-15 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      30% 07-17 and 20-21 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 25% 09-20 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 25% 08-20 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      after 12 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
02 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
03 May    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible at times at all latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:    88100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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