[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 12 issued 2328 UT on 30 Apr 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 1 09:28:12 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 114/65

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 May             02 May             03 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Region 1465 (S18W95) produced a C3.9 flare at 0738 UT 
in conjunction with a CME which is not expected to be geo-effective. 
Region 1471 (S22E45) produced a number of C flares, the largest 
a C6 at 1041 UT. ACE observations shows the solar wind was undisturbed. 
Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly undisturbed over 
the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            4   22111111
      Norfolk Island       2   12100010
      Camden               1   01110000
      Canberra             0   00100001
      Hobart               3   12111101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   00120000
      Casey                5   23301011
      Mawson               4   13100013
      Davis                7   23221122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2211 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 May     6    Quiet
02 May     7    Quiet to unsettled
03 May     5    Quiet

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Apr    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
      40% 05-15 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      30% 07-17 and 20-21 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 25% 09-20 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 25% 08-20 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      after 12 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
02 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
03 May    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible at times at all latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:    88100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list