[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 12 issued 2329 UT on 04 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 5 09:29:15 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Low level C flares from regions 1469 (S26W62), 1471
(S19W10) and 1474 (N16E40)/1475 (N06E48). All regions appear
stable while a new region is rotating onto the visible disc.
A disappearing filament in the southwest quadrant and associated
CME were observed in SDO and STEREO images at ~0145 UT; the CME
may be geo-effective in about four days. ACE data show the north-south
IMF was mostly northward to 7 nT while other parameters were
mostly undisturbed. Solar wind parameters should be mostly undisturbed
although there may be mild disturbance on 6 or 7 May due to the
2 May CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Mostly quiet
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 3 22100111
Darwin 2 22100101
Townsville 7 33211122
Learmonth 4 22111211
Norfolk Island 2 22000011
Camden 2 22000001
Canberra 1 12000000
Hobart 1 12000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 3 23100010
Mawson 4 33000011
Davis 6 23211121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3222 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 5 Quiet
06 May 6 Quiet to unsettled
07 May 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled at Antarctic stations
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal
07 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
13-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
00-04 and 20-23 UT, depressions to 30% 10-14 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
at Darwin 11-19 UT and 09-16 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
08-21 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Spread F observed during night hours at low latitudes.
Depressions to 25% possible at times at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 20500 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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