[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 12 issued 2329 UT on 04 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 5 09:29:15 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 114/65

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 May             06 May             07 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Low level C flares from regions 1469 (S26W62), 1471 
(S19W10) and 1474 (N16E40)/1475 (N06E48). All regions appear 
stable while a new region is rotating onto the visible disc. 
A disappearing filament in the southwest quadrant and associated 
CME were observed in SDO and STEREO images at ~0145 UT; the CME 
may be geo-effective in about four days. ACE data show the north-south 
IMF was mostly northward to 7 nT while other parameters were 
mostly undisturbed. Solar wind parameters should be mostly undisturbed 
although there may be mild disturbance on 6 or 7 May due to the 
2 May CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Mostly quiet

Estimated Indices 04 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22100111
      Darwin               2   22100101
      Townsville           7   33211122
      Learmonth            4   22111211
      Norfolk Island       2   22000011
      Camden               2   22000001
      Canberra             1   12000000
      Hobart               1   12000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey                3   23100010
      Mawson               4   33000011
      Davis                6   23211121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   3222 1113     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 May     5    Quiet
06 May     6    Quiet to unsettled
07 May     7    Quiet to unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled at Antarctic stations

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 May    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      13-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      00-04 and 20-23 UT, depressions to 30% 10-14 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      at Darwin 11-19 UT and 09-16 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      08-21 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 May    65    Near predicted monthly values
06 May    65    Near predicted monthly values
07 May    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Spread F observed during night hours at low latitudes. 
Depressions to 25% possible at times at all latitudes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 292 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    20500 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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