[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 12 issued 2348 UT on 29 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 30 10:48:49 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **  MAG:GREEN   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             130/84             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low during 29 March with a number 
of C-class flares from returning solar region 1429. Solar activity 
is expected to be Low-Moderate over the next few days with the 
return of previously active region 1429. A partial Halo CME was 
observed in SOHO/LASCO satellite imagery at approximately 03-04UT 
on 27 March in association with flare activity from solar regions 
1444 and 1442. The CME is primarily directed northward up out 
of the ecliptic plane, however, there is the chance of a glancing 
impact from this event on day 1 of the forecast period although 
effects are only expected to be mild. There was a weak CME observed 
in STEREO satellite imagery around 19UT on 28 March associated 
with an eruptive filament. This CME was primarily directed southward 
down out of the ecliptic plane, however, there is the small chance 
of a glancing impact from this event on day 3 of the forecast 
period although effects are only expected to be slight. Solar 
wind speeds continued to decrease during 29 March and are presently 
around 320 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain low 
for the next few days with the small chance that they may again 
become slightly elevated with the possible glancing CME impacts 
on days 1 and 3 of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101012
      Darwin               3   11101112
      Townsville           2   11101012
      Learmonth            3   -1111112
      Norfolk Island       2   11100012
      Camden               1   00101011
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               3   11101112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000001
      Casey                6   22311112
      Mawson              14   10001146

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   4532 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar    10    Mostly Quiet with the slight chance of isolated 
                Unsettled to Active levels.
31 Mar     6    Quiet
01 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly 
Quiet over the next few days. There is the small chance of isolated 
Unsettled to Active levels with possible glancing CME impacts 
on days 1 and 3 of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 
the next few days with isolated slightly degraded periods at 
times. SWFs are possible over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Mar    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 28 March 
and is current for 28-30 Mar. HF conditions in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values with some isolated 
mild depressions at times. MUFs are expected to remain mostly 
near predicted monthly values for the next three days with isolated 
slight depressions at times. SWFs are possible over the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    95500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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