[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 12 issued 2348 UT on 29 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 30 10:48:49 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low during 29 March with a number
of C-class flares from returning solar region 1429. Solar activity
is expected to be Low-Moderate over the next few days with the
return of previously active region 1429. A partial Halo CME was
observed in SOHO/LASCO satellite imagery at approximately 03-04UT
on 27 March in association with flare activity from solar regions
1444 and 1442. The CME is primarily directed northward up out
of the ecliptic plane, however, there is the chance of a glancing
impact from this event on day 1 of the forecast period although
effects are only expected to be mild. There was a weak CME observed
in STEREO satellite imagery around 19UT on 28 March associated
with an eruptive filament. This CME was primarily directed southward
down out of the ecliptic plane, however, there is the small chance
of a glancing impact from this event on day 3 of the forecast
period although effects are only expected to be slight. Solar
wind speeds continued to decrease during 29 March and are presently
around 320 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain low
for the next few days with the small chance that they may again
become slightly elevated with the possible glancing CME impacts
on days 1 and 3 of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11101012
Darwin 3 11101112
Townsville 2 11101012
Learmonth 3 -1111112
Norfolk Island 2 11100012
Camden 1 00101011
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 3 11101112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 6 22311112
Mawson 14 10001146
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15 4532 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 10 Mostly Quiet with the slight chance of isolated
Unsettled to Active levels.
31 Mar 6 Quiet
01 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly
Quiet over the next few days. There is the small chance of isolated
Unsettled to Active levels with possible glancing CME impacts
on days 1 and 3 of the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the next few days with isolated slightly degraded periods at
times. SWFs are possible over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 28 March
and is current for 28-30 Mar. HF conditions in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values with some isolated
mild depressions at times. MUFs are expected to remain mostly
near predicted monthly values for the next three days with isolated
slight depressions at times. SWFs are possible over the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 95500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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