[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 12 issued 2352 UT on 28 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 29 10:52:38 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low during 28 March with a C1 
flare from solar region 1444 at 2158UT. Solar activity is expected 
to be Low-Moderate over the next few days with the return of 
previously active region 1429. A partial Halo CME was observed 
in SOHO/LASCO satellite imagery at approximately 03-04UT on 27 
March in association with flare activity from solar regions 1444 
and 1442. The CME is primarily directed northward up out of the 
ecliptic plane, however, there is the chance of a glancing impact 
from this event although effects are only expected to be mild. 
Solar wind speeds continued to increase during 28 March, peaking 
at approximately 500 km/s. Solar wind parameters suggest this 
is most likely due to a high speed coronal hole wind stream. 
The IMF fluctuated up to approximately -15nT at times during 
the early part of 28 March and has since remained approximately 
near zero. Solar wind speeds are expected to decline slowly into 
29 March, but may again become mildly elevated with the possible 
glancing CME impact late in the UT day of 29 March and into 30 
March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33224121
      Darwin              10   33224121
      Townsville           9   32224121
      Learmonth            8   3222-131
      Norfolk Island       7   32223120
      Camden              10   33224120
      Canberra             6   33212020
      Hobart              12   33334121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    19   43445211
      Casey               10   34322121
      Mawson              43   65432274

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15   1213 3345     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar     8    Mostly Quiet with Active levels possible late 
                in the UT day.
30 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
31 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled with an 
isolated Active period at low-mid latitudes and storm periods 
at high latitudes during 28 March. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly Quiet with the chance of Active periods late in 
the UT day for 29 March with a possible glancing CME impact. 
Active periods are possible for 30 March with conditions becoming 
mostly Quiet to Unsettled for 31 March.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal to mildly 
degraded at times over the next few days. SWFs are possible over 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Mar    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
30 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
31 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 28 March 
and is current for 28-30 Mar. HF conditions in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values with some 15-30% 
depressions at times. MUFs are expected to remain mostly near 
predicted monthly values with mild depressions at times for southern 
regions for the next three days. SWFs are possible over the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:   11.6 p/cc  Temp:    53300 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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