[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 12 issued 2352 UT on 28 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 29 10:52:38 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low during 28 March with a C1
flare from solar region 1444 at 2158UT. Solar activity is expected
to be Low-Moderate over the next few days with the return of
previously active region 1429. A partial Halo CME was observed
in SOHO/LASCO satellite imagery at approximately 03-04UT on 27
March in association with flare activity from solar regions 1444
and 1442. The CME is primarily directed northward up out of the
ecliptic plane, however, there is the chance of a glancing impact
from this event although effects are only expected to be mild.
Solar wind speeds continued to increase during 28 March, peaking
at approximately 500 km/s. Solar wind parameters suggest this
is most likely due to a high speed coronal hole wind stream.
The IMF fluctuated up to approximately -15nT at times during
the early part of 28 March and has since remained approximately
near zero. Solar wind speeds are expected to decline slowly into
29 March, but may again become mildly elevated with the possible
glancing CME impact late in the UT day of 29 March and into 30
March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 33224121
Darwin 10 33224121
Townsville 9 32224121
Learmonth 8 3222-131
Norfolk Island 7 32223120
Camden 10 33224120
Canberra 6 33212020
Hobart 12 33334121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
Macquarie Island 19 43445211
Casey 10 34322121
Mawson 43 65432274
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15 1213 3345
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 8 Mostly Quiet with Active levels possible late
in the UT day.
30 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
31 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled with an
isolated Active period at low-mid latitudes and storm periods
at high latitudes during 28 March. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly Quiet with the chance of Active periods late in
the UT day for 29 March with a possible glancing CME impact.
Active periods are possible for 30 March with conditions becoming
mostly Quiet to Unsettled for 31 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal to mildly
degraded at times over the next few days. SWFs are possible over
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
30 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
31 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 28 March
and is current for 28-30 Mar. HF conditions in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values with some 15-30%
depressions at times. MUFs are expected to remain mostly near
predicted monthly values with mild depressions at times for southern
regions for the next three days. SWFs are possible over the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 11.6 p/cc Temp: 53300 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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