[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 12 issued 2340 UT on 27 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 28 10:40:26 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION:** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low during 27 March with C-class
flare activity from solar regions 1442 and 1444. Solar activity
is expected to be Low-Moderate over the next few days with the
return of previously active region 1429. An asymmetric Halo CME
was observed in LASCO satellite imagery in association with a
Type II sweep recorded at approximately 2250-2255UT on 26 March
on both Culgoora and Learmonth Radio Spectrographs. This event
has been analysed to be a backside event and is not expected
to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds have increased during the
past 6 hours, most likely due to a high speed coronal hole wind
stream rotating into geoeffective position. The IMF has been
primarily southward during the past 24 hours, ranging up to approximately
-10nT at times. Solar wind speeds are expected to be mildly elevated
for 28-29 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 12222223
Darwin 7 12222223
Townsville 7 12222223
Learmonth 9 -2123323
Norfolk Island 7 12222223
Camden 9 22233222
Canberra 6 12122222
Hobart 10 12233323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
Macquarie Island 23 02056423
Casey 12 24332223
Mawson 22 34323445
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1101 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
29 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled at low-mid
latitudes during 27 March with some Active and isolated Storm
levels observed at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active periods
possible at times, particularly at high latitudes for 28 March.
Mostly Unsettled to Quiet levels are expected for 29-30 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal to mildly
degraded at times over the next few days. SWFs are possible over
the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 65 Mostly near predicted monthly values with some
depressions of 10-20% at times for southern regions.
29 Mar 65 Mostly near predicted monthly values with some
depressions of 10-20% at times for southern regions.
30 Mar 65 Mostly near predicted monthly values with some
depressions of 10-20% at times for southern regions.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 27 March
and is current for 27-29 Mar (SWFs). HF conditions in the Australian
region were mostly Normal for 27 March, with some isolated mild
depressions at times. MUFs are expected to remain mostly near
predicted monthly values with mild depressions at times for southern
regions for the next three days. SWFs are possible over the next
few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 24900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list