[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 12 issued 2340 UT on 27 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 28 10:40:26 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION:** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Mar             29 Mar             30 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low during 27 March with C-class 
flare activity from solar regions 1442 and 1444. Solar activity 
is expected to be Low-Moderate over the next few days with the 
return of previously active region 1429. An asymmetric Halo CME 
was observed in LASCO satellite imagery in association with a 
Type II sweep recorded at approximately 2250-2255UT on 26 March 
on both Culgoora and Learmonth Radio Spectrographs. This event 
has been analysed to be a backside event and is not expected 
to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds have increased during the 
past 6 hours, most likely due to a high speed coronal hole wind 
stream rotating into geoeffective position. The IMF has been 
primarily southward during the past 24 hours, ranging up to approximately 
-10nT at times. Solar wind speeds are expected to be mildly elevated 
for 28-29 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12222223
      Darwin               7   12222223
      Townsville           7   12222223
      Learmonth            9   -2123323
      Norfolk Island       7   12222223
      Camden               9   22233222
      Canberra             6   12122222
      Hobart              10   12233323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    23   02056423
      Casey               12   24332223
      Mawson              22   34323445

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           18   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1101 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
29 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Mar     6    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled at low-mid 
latitudes during 27 March with some Active and isolated Storm 
levels observed at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active periods 
possible at times, particularly at high latitudes for 28 March. 
Mostly Unsettled to Quiet levels are expected for 29-30 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal to mildly 
degraded at times over the next few days. SWFs are possible over 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Mar    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Mar    65    Mostly near predicted monthly values with some 
                depressions of 10-20% at times for southern regions.
29 Mar    65    Mostly near predicted monthly values with some 
                depressions of 10-20% at times for southern regions.
30 Mar    65    Mostly near predicted monthly values with some 
                depressions of 10-20% at times for southern regions.

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 27 March 
and is current for 27-29 Mar (SWFs). HF conditions in the Australian 
region were mostly Normal for 27 March, with some isolated mild 
depressions at times. MUFs are expected to remain mostly near 
predicted monthly values with mild depressions at times for southern 
regions for the next three days. SWFs are possible over the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    24900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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