[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 12 issued 2338 UT on 30 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 31 10:38:43 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Mar             01 Apr             02 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low during 30 March with a C1/SF 
flare at 2112UT appearing to have occurred in the vicinity of 
returning region 1429 (NE limb). Solar activity is expected to 
be Low-Moderate over the next few days. A weak CME observed in 
STEREO satellite imagery around 19UT on 28 March is primarily 
directed southward down out of the ecliptic plane, however, there 
is the small chance of a glancing impact from this event on day 
2 of the forecast period although effects are only expected to 
be slight. CMEs observed in SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery 
during 30 March appear predominantly directed to the N/NE and 
are not expected to be geoeffective. ACE satellite solar wind 
parameters (EPAM and SWEPAM) suggest the possible arrival of 
a very weak CME around 08UT on 30 March. This is possibly a glancing 
impact from a partial halo CME observed on 27 March. Solar wind 
speeds increased slightly from 08UT and are presently around 
420 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to be predominantly 
low for the next few days with the small chance that they may 
again become slightly elevated with the possible glancing CME 
impact on day 2 of the forecast period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22211001
      Darwin               4   22211101
      Townsville           4   22211012
      Learmonth            4   22211101
      Norfolk Island       2   12210001
      Camden               3   22211001
      Canberra             1   11100001
      Hobart               3   22111101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   12100000
      Casey                9   33420111
      Mawson               8   43321001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0000 1113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Mar     6    Quiet
01 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at Quiet levels for the 
Australian region during 30 March, with some Unsettled and Active 
levels observed at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be predominantly Quiet over the next few days. There is the 
small chance of isolated Unsettled to Active levels with possible 
glancing CME impact on day 2 of the forecast period.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 
the next few days. SWFs are possible over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Mar    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 30 March 
and is current for 30-31 Mar (SWFs). HF conditions in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during 30 March. 
MUFs are expected to remain mostly near predicted monthly values 
for the next three days. SWFs are possible over the next few 
days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 355 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    44600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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