[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 12 issued 2333 UT on 22 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 23 10:33:55 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, with just a
single C-class flare. Solar activity is expected to be at Low
or Very Low levels over the next 3 days. AR1440 (S25W40) has
reduced in magnetic complexity, and is less likely to flare above
C level. Solar wind/IMF conditions were relatively stable with
a low solar wind speed over the first half of the UT day. After
~16UT, solar wind speed, density and IMF total magnetic field
abruptly increased, likely due to the leading edge of a coronal
hole wind stream. A sustained period of southward-directed IMF
(~ -6nT) continues at the time of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11010022
Darwin 6 21110133
Townsville 4 11010132
Learmonth 6 22011133
Norfolk Island 2 11100022
Camden 3 12010022
Canberra 1 01000012
Hobart 3 12100022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 01000011
Casey 9 33210024
Mawson 16 24220026
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1011 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet for most of the UT day.
The arrival, late in the UT day, of a coronal hole wind stream
with a sustained interval of southwards IMF raised activity levels
across all locations after ~19UT. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be Quiet-Unsettled days 1 and 2 (23-24 Mar), returning
to mostly Quiet day 3 (25-Mar).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal
over the UT day, with MUFs near predicted monthly values. Some
periods of spread-F were observed at S.Aus locations overnight,
degrading HF conditions there. MUFs are expected to remain near
predicted monthly values over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 45700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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