[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 12 issued 2335 UT on 21 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 22 10:35:19 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Mar             23 Mar             24 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, with just three 
C-class flares in Xrays. Solar activity is expected to be at 
Low-Moderate levels, with the slight chance of isolated M-class 
flares. The increased flare activity is predominantly from a 
newly numbered region AR1440 (S26W26). The region showed rapid 
development over the UT day, in both size and complexity. Solar 
wind/IMF conditions were relatively stable with a low solar wind 
speed. A small near-equatorial coronal hole may move into geoeffective 
position on day 1 of the forecast period (22 Mar), increasing 
solar wind speeds.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11111122
      Darwin               4   21111122
      Townsville           4   20111122
      Learmonth            6   21021133
      Norfolk Island       3   -1111121
      Camden               4   10121122
      Canberra             1   00010021
      Hobart               4   11121122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     3   11131010
      Casey               11   33322133
      Mawson              18   32111264

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1111 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day with 
isolated active periods at high latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be Quiet-Unsettled days 1 and 2 (22-23 Mar) with 
the expected arrival of a coronal hole wind stream, and mostly 
Quiet day 3 (24 -Mar).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Mar    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal 
over the UT day. Minor (15%) MUF depressions were again observed 
at S.Aus locations during the day. Ionospheric support is expected 
to gradually strengthen over the forecast period, with MUFs mostly 
near predicted monthly values. Ongoing mild depressions may be 
expected in S.Aus regions day 1 (22 Mar).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 444 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    48600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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