[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 12 issued 2341 UT on 20 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 21 10:41:13 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Mar             22 Mar             23 Mar
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, with no 
flares above B-level in Xrays. Solar activity is expected to 
continue at Very Low levels, although there is a chance of isolated 
C-class flares. Two new spotted groups have been numbered: AR1438 
(S15E67) just rotated onto the visible disc, and AR1439 (N25W80) 
soon to rotate off. Solar wind conditions were stable with IMF 
BZ remaining between +/-2nT and solar wind speed declining over 
the UT day to be ~400km/s at the time of reporting. A small near-equatorial 
coronal hole may move into geoeffective position on day 2 of 
the forecast period (22 Mar), increasing solar wind speeds.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               4   21111212
      Townsville           3   11111112
      Learmonth            5   22121221
      Norfolk Island       3   11110112
      Camden               2   11110111
      Canberra             1   10010101
      Hobart               5   22211211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   11220010
      Casey               12   34411222
      Mawson              22   53221236

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2422 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Mar     5    Quiet
22 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day with 
isolated active periods at high latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be Quiet day 1 (21-Mar), and Quiet-Unsettled 
days 2 and 3 (22-23 Mar) with the expected arrival of a coronal 
hole wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Mar    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal 
over the UT day. Some periods of spread-F were again observed 
at S.Aus locations overnight, degrading HF conditions there. 
15-20% MUF depressions were observed at most locations in the 
Australian region overnight, and in S.Aus during the day. Ionospheric 
support is expected to gradually strengthen over the forecast 
period, with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values. Ongoing 
mild overnight depressions may be expected in S.Aus regions days 
1 and 2 (21-22 Mar).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 521 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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