[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 12 issued 2337 UT on 19 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 20 10:37:09 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Mar             21 Mar             22 Mar
Activity     Low                Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day with just two 
minor C-class flares, one from AR1432 (N14W64), the other from 
an undetermined region. Both AR1432 and AR1435 (S25W60) have 
grown in size over the UT day, however they remain relatively 
small beta groups, and will rotate off the visible surface in 
2 days. Activity, particularly from these two regions, is expected 
to remain at Low levels. Solar wind conditions were unsettled 
with the arrival, early in the UT day, of a solar wind transient, 
likely the tail end of the CME from March 15. This resulted in 
periods of southwards directed IMF and a solar wind speed that 
increased marginally from a background level of 500km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23222122
      Darwin               9   33222113
      Townsville           8   23222113
      Learmonth           12   33233223
      Norfolk Island       7   23222122
      Camden               8   23222222
      Canberra             5   12222112
      Hobart              10   23332222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    12   23244112
      Casey               23   45533233
      Mawson              30   45321365

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   4423 2012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Mar     7    Quiet
22 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet to Unsettled 
over the UT day, with isolated active periods at high latitudes. 
The increased activity was due to the arrival, early in the UT 
day, of a weak solar wind transient, with extended periods of 
southwards-directed IMF, resulting in enhanced merging with the 
geomagnetic field at high latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to be mostly Quiet day 1 (20-Mar), with some isolated 
Unsettled to Active periods at high latitudes, returning to Quiet 
days 2 and 3 (21-22 Mar).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Mar    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar    85    Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal 
over the UT day. Some periods of spread-F were observed at S.Aus 
locations, particularly overnight, degrading HF conditions there. 
MUFs were generally depressed 15-20% overnight, and near predicted 
monthly values during the day, as the ionosphere continues to 
strengthen following recent activity. Ionospheric support is 
expected to strengthen over the forecast period, with MUFs near 
predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 563 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:   124000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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