[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 12 issued 2337 UT on 19 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 20 10:37:09 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day with just two
minor C-class flares, one from AR1432 (N14W64), the other from
an undetermined region. Both AR1432 and AR1435 (S25W60) have
grown in size over the UT day, however they remain relatively
small beta groups, and will rotate off the visible surface in
2 days. Activity, particularly from these two regions, is expected
to remain at Low levels. Solar wind conditions were unsettled
with the arrival, early in the UT day, of a solar wind transient,
likely the tail end of the CME from March 15. This resulted in
periods of southwards directed IMF and a solar wind speed that
increased marginally from a background level of 500km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 23222122
Darwin 9 33222113
Townsville 8 23222113
Learmonth 12 33233223
Norfolk Island 7 23222122
Camden 8 23222222
Canberra 5 12222112
Hobart 10 23332222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
Macquarie Island 12 23244112
Casey 23 45533233
Mawson 30 45321365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 4423 2012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Mar 7 Quiet
22 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet to Unsettled
over the UT day, with isolated active periods at high latitudes.
The increased activity was due to the arrival, early in the UT
day, of a weak solar wind transient, with extended periods of
southwards-directed IMF, resulting in enhanced merging with the
geomagnetic field at high latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be mostly Quiet day 1 (20-Mar), with some isolated
Unsettled to Active periods at high latitudes, returning to Quiet
days 2 and 3 (21-22 Mar).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 85 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal
over the UT day. Some periods of spread-F were observed at S.Aus
locations, particularly overnight, degrading HF conditions there.
MUFs were generally depressed 15-20% overnight, and near predicted
monthly values during the day, as the ionosphere continues to
strengthen following recent activity. Ionospheric support is
expected to strengthen over the forecast period, with MUFs near
predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 563 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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