[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 12 issued 2325 UT on 23 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 24 10:25:51 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1940UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Mar             25 Mar             26 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the UT day with an 
M1.0 (1940UT) and a C6.5 (1639UT) Xray flare from a newly numbered 
active region (AR11445, S24E74) that rotated onto the disc near 
the south-eastern limb. The magnetic configuration of this active 
region is difficult to determine accurately until it rotates 
further onto the visible disc, however from its current activity 
profile, solar activity is expected to continue at Moderate levels 
with the chance of further M-class flares. The IMF recovered 
from a sustained southwards period early in the UT day and otherwise 
remained stable, with solar wind speed fluctuating between 320 
and 420km/s.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111111
      Darwin               5   31211111
      Townsville           3   21111111
      Learmonth            6   32121221
      Norfolk Island       3   21110111
      Camden               3   21111111
      Canberra             1   20110000
      Hobart               4   21221111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   10112000
      Casey                8   33321121
      Mawson               7   42221111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1100 0133     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Mar     5    Quiet
25 Mar     5    Quiet
26 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet over the UT day, 
with some unsettled periods early in the UT day as a result of 
an extended period of mildly southward IMF. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to continue at Quiet levels next three days (24-26 
Mar).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Mar    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal 
over the UT day, with MUFs near predicted monthly values. Some 
periods of spread-F were observed at S.Aus locations overnight, 
degrading HF conditions there. MUFs are expected to remain near 
predicted monthly values over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: No Xray data available

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    28700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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