[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 12 issued 2351 UT on 15 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 16 10:51:43 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    0754UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Moderate levels today. Region 
1432(N14W14) produced an M1.8 flare peaking at 0752UT with associated 
Type II radio sweep (468km/s) observed on the Learmonth Radio 
Spectrograph. LASCO and STEREO images show a CME following the 
flare. The >10MeV proton event which began Mar 13 ended at 0620UT. 
Region 1432 has grown and is expected to continue producing M-class 
flares with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare. A 
Shock was observed in the solar wind around 1240UT. This is due 
to the CME observed on March 13. Solar wind parameters become 
disturbed with speed, density and temperature all increasing. 
The wind speed rose to about 750Km/s. After the shock arrival, 
the IMF Bz was(-10nT) Southward from about 13 to 17UT. It maintained 
+/-2nT for most of the remainder of the day, trending towards 
neutral at the time of report issue. ACE EPAM data indicates 
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 15/0740UT, which 
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity. Solar wind 
speed is expected to remain strengthened for the next 24 hours 
due to the CME effects and the anticipated arrival of a recurrent 
coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm. One Major
Storm period at Hobart and Learmonth.

Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      19   22225533
      Darwin              19   22225533
      Townsville          16   22225433
      Learmonth           26   22226544
      Norfolk Island      15   22225432
      Camden              20   22225543
      Canberra            16   11125532
      Hobart              26   22225644    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    54   22247764
      Casey               37   44535644
      Mawson              93   65435956
      Davis               44   53445744

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Darwin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              83   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             29                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3201 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
17 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Mar     7    Quiet

COMMENT: A shock passage from the CME of March 13 was observed 
at the ACE satellite platform at around 1240UT. A geomagnetic 
sudden impulse (32nT) was observed on the IPS magnetometer network 
at 1307UT. The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid latitudes 
was Quiet prior to the event, with Minor to Major Storm periods 
observed following impact. Severe Storm levels were observed 
at high latitudes following the sudden impulse. ACE EPAM data 
indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 11/0215UT, 
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be at Unsettled to Active levels with 
Storm levels at high latitudes day 1 due to the CME and coronal 
hole effects. Conditions should decline to Quiet to Unsettled 
on day 2 of the forecast period, but Active intervals are possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor           

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began at 0800UT 13/03, Ended at 0650UT 15/03

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor
17 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Continuing poor ionospheric support at high latitudes 
next two days due to elevated geomagnetic activity. The >10MeV 
proton event which began Mar 13 ended at 0620UT.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Mar    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Poor ionospheric support over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
17 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
18 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Night time depressed MUF periods observed in S Aus/NZ. 
Generally weak ionospheric support Antarctic region. The >10MeV 
proton event which began Mar 13 ended at 0620UT. Expect periods 
of disturbance S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions days one and two due 
to anticipated geomagnetic disturbances.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.4E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 512 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:   136000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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