[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 12 issued 2355 UT on 16 Mar 2012

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 17 10:55:18 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Background X-ray flux remained mostly at very low levels 
over the previous day with C1 flares from regions 1432(N14W25). 
Solar activity is expected to stay mostly at Low levels for the 
next 3 days as big sunspot AR 1429 has rotated of the visible 
disk. Possibility of an isolated M-class flare from region 1432 
over the forecast period. The solar wind speed has mostly varied 
between 700-650Km/s with a brief excussion to ~750Km/s around 
15UT. The IMF Bz remained mostly in the +/-2nT with a southward 
excursion (-5nT) around 08 UT and a more disturbed period to 
+/-6nT from 15UT. This probably marks onset of the anticipated 
mild coronal hole wind stream. Solar wind speed is expected to 
remain strengthened due to coronal hole effects, Earthward component 
of two weak CMEs is likely to cause further disturbance to the 
solar wind parameters from late on 17 March. 





-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      18   32353423
      Darwin              20   323534-3
      Townsville          19   223534-3
      Learmonth           19   32353--3
      Norfolk_Island      15   22352332
      Camden              23   32363433
      Canberra            11   21352202
      Hobart              23   32363433
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
      Macquarie_Island    44   33575543
      Casey               25   33443454
      Mawson              65   45543776
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar : 
      Darwin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara           118   (Major storm)
      Canberra            84   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             119   (Major storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             38   3322 5665     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar    18    Active 
18 Mar    25    Active 
19 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid latitudes 
was Quiet to Unsettled before 09UT but rose to active to Storm 
levels afterwards. The first observed Storm period was at 09UT 
associated with the IMF Bz Southward excursion at around 09UT. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Unsettled to Active 
levels with Storm levels at high latitudes due to the coronal 
hole effects. Minor effects From 2 CMEs are expected to be observed 
late on March 17. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Fair           Poor           Poor

PCA Event : Began at 0800UT 13/03, Ended at 0650UT 15/03
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Fair           Poor           Poor
18 Mar      Fair           Fair           Poor
19 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair

COMMENT: Continuing ionospheric disturbance likely next two days 
due to elevated geomagnetic activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Mar    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
     Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Poor ionospheric support over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar    40    About 40% below predicted monthly values 
18 Mar    40    About 40% below predicted monthly values 
19 Mar    50    About 20% below predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 16 March 
and is current for interval 16-17 March. MUF depressions up to 
40% were observed over much of the Australian region over the 
last 24 hours. poor ionosphere Antarctic region. Expect further 
ionospheric disturbance for S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions over the 
next few days due to anticipated geomagnetic disturbances. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 540 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list