[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 12 issued 2355 UT on 16 Mar 2012
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 17 10:55:18 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Background X-ray flux remained mostly at very low levels
over the previous day with C1 flares from regions 1432(N14W25).
Solar activity is expected to stay mostly at Low levels for the
next 3 days as big sunspot AR 1429 has rotated of the visible
disk. Possibility of an isolated M-class flare from region 1432
over the forecast period. The solar wind speed has mostly varied
between 700-650Km/s with a brief excussion to ~750Km/s around
15UT. The IMF Bz remained mostly in the +/-2nT with a southward
excursion (-5nT) around 08 UT and a more disturbed period to
+/-6nT from 15UT. This probably marks onset of the anticipated
mild coronal hole wind stream. Solar wind speed is expected to
remain strengthened due to coronal hole effects, Earthward component
of two weak CMEs is likely to cause further disturbance to the
solar wind parameters from late on 17 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 18 32353423
Darwin 20 323534-3
Townsville 19 223534-3
Learmonth 19 32353--3
Norfolk_Island 15 22352332
Camden 23 32363433
Canberra 11 21352202
Hobart 23 32363433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
Macquarie_Island 44 33575543
Casey 25 33443454
Mawson 65 45543776
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 118 (Major storm)
Canberra 84 (Minor storm)
Hobart 119 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 38 3322 5665
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 18 Active
18 Mar 25 Active
19 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid latitudes
was Quiet to Unsettled before 09UT but rose to active to Storm
levels afterwards. The first observed Storm period was at 09UT
associated with the IMF Bz Southward excursion at around 09UT.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Unsettled to Active
levels with Storm levels at high latitudes due to the coronal
hole effects. Minor effects From 2 CMEs are expected to be observed
late on March 17.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Fair Poor Poor
PCA Event : Began at 0800UT 13/03, Ended at 0650UT 15/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Fair Poor Poor
18 Mar Fair Fair Poor
19 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: Continuing ionospheric disturbance likely next two days
due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Poor ionospheric support over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 40 About 40% below predicted monthly values
18 Mar 40 About 40% below predicted monthly values
19 Mar 50 About 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 16 March
and is current for interval 16-17 March. MUF depressions up to
40% were observed over much of the Australian region over the
last 24 hours. poor ionosphere Antarctic region. Expect further
ionospheric disturbance for S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions over the
next few days due to anticipated geomagnetic disturbances.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 540 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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