[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 12 issued 2350 UT on 14 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 15 10:51:01 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.8    1522UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Region 1432(N14E03) produced an M2.8 flare peaking at 
1521UT associated with a CME observed by the COR2-B coronagraph. 
Solar activity is expected to be Low over the next 3 days with 
a chance of M-class events from region 1432. Previously X-M flares 
producing region 1429(N19W77) is due to rotate behind the limb. 
The >10MeV proton event which began Mar 13 remains in progress 
but is in decline. Solar wind speed remains elevated, declining 
from around 550 Km/s to around 480 km/s over the UT day. The 
Bz component of the IMF turned moderately Southward, maintaining 
-5nT for some hours and -2nT for most part of the UT day. Solar 
wind speed is expected to continue to diminish over the next 
24 hours. Possible effects from the CME observed on March 13 
could increase the solar wind speed and density from late on 
March 15 or early March 16. A coronal hole is expected to raise 
the solar wind speed from March 16.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21122322
      Darwin               8   21222323
      Townsville           7   21222322
      Learmonth            9   22122333
      Norfolk Island       6   21122222
      Camden               7   21122322
      Canberra             4   20022211
      Hobart               8   22123322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    12   22124431
      Casey               19   34433334
      Mawson              39   55333565
      Davis               26   43434445

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   3321 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Mar    20    Active
17 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the last 
24 hours for the Australian region with some Unsettled periods 
associated with moderate Southward IMF Bz. Possible CME effects 
might increase activity to Active levels from late on March 15 
or early March 16. Coronal hole effects might further increase 
activity from March 16.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 13 03 2012 1900UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Weak ionospheric support at high latitudes. Proton event 
remains in progress but is declining.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Mar    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
17 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Weak ionosphere observed in Antarctic region. Otherwise 
propagation conditions mostly near predicted monthly values. 
Expect mostly similar conditions next 24 hours. Degraded ionospheric 
conditions possible days 2 and 3 affecting higher latitudes due 
to anticipated geomagnetic disturbances. The >10MeV proton event 
which began Mar 13 remains in progress but is in decline.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 574 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:   229000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list