[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 12 issued 2352 UT on 13 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 14 10:52:39 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M7.9    1743UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Region 1429(N18W62) produced a M7.9 flare at 1741UT. 
The proton flux above 10 MeV become elevated following this event. 
LASCO and STEREO images show a halo CME associated with the flare 
activity. Solar activity is expected to stay mostly at Low levels 
for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated M-class 
events from region 1429 until it rotates of the disk on March 
15. Solar wind speed remained elevated, varied mostly between 
600-700Km/s. The IMF Bz stayed close (between +/-2nT) to the 
normal value for most parts of the UT day. Solar wind speed is 
expected to decline over the next 2 days. There may be some possibility 
of strengthening in solar wind stream late day 2 early day 3 
due to a possible arrival of the abovementioned CME. Solar wind 
stream may also get some strength due to the effect of a recurrent 
coronal hole from 16 March.





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222221
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           6   22122221
      Learmonth            7   22222222
      Norfolk Island       6   22122221
      Camden               6   22222221
      Canberra             5   21122221
      Hobart               8   22232222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    13   23344211
      Casey               22   35532333
      Mawson              30   54322365
      Davis               31   53443364

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             37   2126 7432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar     7    Quiet
15 Mar     7    Quiet
16 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours 
for the Australian region with some Active and Storm periods 
in Antarctica. These conditions are expected to continue for 
the next 2 days. Coronal hole effects are expected to result 
in some Unsettled periods from March 16. Possible CME effects 
might further increase activity.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor           

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began at 0530UT 07/03, Ended at 2135UT 12/03
 and, 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 13 03 2012 1900UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-fair



-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Mar    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Proton event in progress, increased absorption 
       observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values.
15 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Weak ionosphere for the Antarctic region with increased 
absorption. The present proton event is declining. HF propagation 
conditions are expected to improve slightly over the next 2 days. 
Degraded ionospheric conditions possible day 3 affecting higher 
latitudes due to anticipated geomagnetic disturbances.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:   233000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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