[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 12 issued 2348 UT on 10 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 11 10:48:47 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.4 1728UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M8.4 1746UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: There was minor X-ray activity observed early in the
UT day with regions 1428, 1429, 1430 and 1432 producing C-class
flares. Region 1430 (N18E57) produced a long-duration C8 level
flare at 1552UT. Region 1429 (N18W26) produced a long-duration
M8.4 level flare at 1746UT. The M-class flare produced a CME
which is expected to become geoeffective late on the UT day Mar
11 to early Mar 12. The M-class flare was followed by a Type
IV radio noise storm, but no Type II radio sweep reported. Solar
wind speed remains elevated, declining from 550 to 450 km/s over
the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF was moderately (-5nT)
Southward from 00 to 06UT. It maintained -2nT for most of the
remainder of the day, trending towards neutral at the time of
report issue. High energy proton fluxes declined steadily over
the UT day. The >10MeV proton event which began on Mar 07 is
still in progress.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 33332221
Darwin 11 333-3222
Townsville 11 33332222
Learmonth 15 33343331
Norfolk_Island 10 33332221
Camden 10 33332221
Canberra 8 33331110
Hobart 12 33432221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
Macquarie_Island 30 35564321
Casey 17 54422222
Mawson 53 66423475
Davis 31 55533335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 57
Planetary 94 5688 7633
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 65 Storm Levels
12 Mar 75 Storm Levels
13 Mar 20 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 10 March and
is current for interval 11-13 March. The regional geomagnetic
field was Unsettled for the first half of the UT day, becoming
Quiet over the second half of the UT day as solar wind parameters
gradually decline following the recent shock event. Conditions
remained at Unsettled to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes.
Further solar wind shocks are anticipated around the mid-part
UT day one following an M6 flare/CME on Mar 09. Geomagnetic Storm
conditions are expected with possible Severe Storm levels at
mid to high latitudes. This will be compounded by a second
anticipated shock arrival late day one or early day two from an M8
level flare/CME on Mar 10. Geomagnetic storming is expected to
continue for the next two to three days. The >10MeV proton event
which began Mar 07 is still in progress.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 03 2012 0530UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Fair Poor(PCA)
12 Mar Normal Fair Poor
13 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Continuing poor ionospheric support at high latitudes
next three days due to elevated geomagnetic activity and proton
event in progress.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed 30% 03-05UT.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption
to -3 dB observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
12 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
13 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Weak ionosphere Antarctic region with increased absorption local
day. The present proton event remains in progress but is declining.
Degraded ionospheric conditions possible next three days due
to further anticipated geomagnetic disturbances. S Aus / NZ /
Antarctic regions most likely to be affected. SWF's possible
local day mainly Equatorial/Aus regions. Disturbances possibly
extending at times to S Aus region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 58000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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