[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 12 issued 2348 UT on 10 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 11 10:48:47 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: * YELLOW *
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.4    1728UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M8.4    1746UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            155/109

COMMENT: There was minor X-ray activity observed early in the 
UT day with regions 1428, 1429, 1430 and 1432 producing C-class 
flares. Region 1430 (N18E57) produced a long-duration C8 level 
flare at 1552UT. Region 1429 (N18W26) produced a long-duration 
M8.4 level flare at 1746UT. The M-class flare produced a CME 
which is expected to become geoeffective late on the UT day Mar 
11 to early Mar 12. The M-class flare was followed by a Type 
IV radio noise storm, but no Type II radio sweep reported. Solar 
wind speed remains elevated, declining from 550 to 450 km/s over 
the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF was moderately (-5nT) 
Southward from 00 to 06UT. It maintained -2nT for most of the 
remainder of the day, trending towards neutral at the time of 
report issue. High energy proton fluxes declined steadily over 
the UT day. The >10MeV proton event which began on Mar 07 is 
still in progress. 





-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33332221
      Darwin              11   333-3222
      Townsville          11   33332222
      Learmonth           15   33343331
      Norfolk_Island      10   33332221
      Camden              10   33332221
      Canberra             8   33331110
      Hobart              12   33432221
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
      Macquarie_Island    30   35564321
      Casey               17   54422222
      Mawson              53   66423475
      Davis               31   55533335
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        57
           Planetary             94   5688 7633     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar    65    Storm Levels 
12 Mar    75    Storm Levels 
13 Mar    20    Active 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 10 March and 
is current for interval 11-13 March. The regional geomagnetic 
field was Unsettled for the first half of the UT day, becoming 
Quiet over the second half of the UT day as solar wind parameters 
gradually decline following the recent shock event. Conditions 
remained at Unsettled to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes. 
Further solar wind shocks are anticipated around the mid-part 
UT day one following an M6 flare/CME on Mar 09. Geomagnetic Storm 
conditions are expected with possible Severe Storm levels at 
mid to high latitudes. This will be compounded by a second 
anticipated shock arrival late day one or early day two from an M8 
level flare/CME on Mar 10. Geomagnetic storming is expected to 
continue for the next two to three days. The >10MeV proton event 
which began Mar 07 is still in progress. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor(PCA)

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 03 2012 0530UT and is in
progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Fair           Poor(PCA)
12 Mar      Normal         Fair           Poor
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Continuing poor ionospheric support at high latitudes 
next three days due to elevated geomagnetic activity and proton 
event in progress. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Mar    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed 30% 03-05UT.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption 
      to -3 dB observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                20% possible at times. 
12 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                20% possible at times. 
13 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                20% possible at times. 

COMMENT: Variable depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
Weak ionosphere Antarctic region with increased absorption local 
day. The present proton event remains in progress but is declining. 
Degraded ionospheric conditions possible next three days due 
to further anticipated geomagnetic disturbances. S Aus / NZ / 
Antarctic regions most likely to be affected. SWF's possible 
local day mainly Equatorial/Aus regions. Disturbances possibly 
extending at times to S Aus region. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.7E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 295 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    58000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list