[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 12 issued 2348 UT on 11 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 12 10:48:30 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED **   ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Mar             13 Mar             14 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low with no significant X-ray 
events observed. Active region 1429 (N18W38) remains complex 
but showed some separation in the trailing spot group over the 
period. It maintains potential for further M- to X-class flare 
activity. Solar wind parameters remained relatively undisturbed. 
The predicted arrival of a shock from the M6 level flare of Mar 
09 has not yet eventuated. Solar wind speed remained steady at 
around 440 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF was mostly neutral 
until 12UT after which it fluctuated +2/-5nT. The >10MeV proton 
event which began Mar 07 remains in progress but is in decline 
and should end Mar 12-13. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 11/0215UT. A shock from the 
Mar 09 M6 level flare may yet occur day one of the forecast 
period. A shock from the M8 level flare of Mar 10 is expected 
late day one to early day two of the forecast period. 


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
11/0215UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21123222
      Darwin               8   22223222
      Townsville           7   21223222
      Learmonth           11   32124223
      Norfolk_Island       5   11122222
      Camden               7   21123222
      Canberra             4   11122111
      Hobart               8   22133222
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
      Macquarie_Island     7   12133121
      Casey               13   33323233
      Mawson              23   43223264
      Davis               15   33333333
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             18   4433 2342     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Mar    35    Active to Minor Storm 
13 Mar    50    Storm Levels 
14 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 10 March and 
is current for interval 11-13 March. Solar wind parameters remained 
relatively undisturbed. The predicted shock from the M6 level 
flare of Mar 09 has not yet eventuated. The regional geomagnetic 
field at low to mid latitudes was Quiet with isolated Unsettled 
intervals. At high latitudes it was Quiet with Unsettled to Active 
periods. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement 
beginning 11/0215UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity. A shock from the Mar 09 flare may yet occur 
day one of the forecast period. A shock from the M8 level flare of 
Mar 10 is expected late day one to early day two of the forecast 
period. Active to Geomagnetic Storm conditions possible days 
one and two, becoming Unsettled to Active day three. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 03 2012 0530UT and is in
progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
13 Mar      Normal         Fair           Poor
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Continuing poor ionospheric support at high latitudes 
next two to three days due to elevated geomagnetic activity. 
Proton event remains in progress but is declining. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Mar    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40-60% 08-22UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night
      and after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin enhanced 40-60% 06-18UT.
      Townsville depressed 20% 09-15UT.
      Learmonth depressed 20-40% 01-06UT, 13-20UT,
      enhanced 30% 09-10UT.
      Other stations depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
      Periods of strong sporadic-E around local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Ionospheric support intermittent.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption 
      to -2dB observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                20% possible at times. 
14 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                20% possible at times. 

COMMENT: Highly variable conditions observed Equatorial/N Aus 
regions with strong enhancements at times. Ongoing disturbances 
S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. Expect further ionospheric disturbance 
days one to three affecting higher latitudes. SWF's possible 
local day mainly Equatorial/Aus regions. Disturbances possibly 
extending at times to S Aus region. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 519 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    31900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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