[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 12 issued 2348 UT on 11 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 12 10:48:30 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low with no significant X-ray
events observed. Active region 1429 (N18W38) remains complex
but showed some separation in the trailing spot group over the
period. It maintains potential for further M- to X-class flare
activity. Solar wind parameters remained relatively undisturbed.
The predicted arrival of a shock from the M6 level flare of Mar
09 has not yet eventuated. Solar wind speed remained steady at
around 440 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF was mostly neutral
until 12UT after which it fluctuated +2/-5nT. The >10MeV proton
event which began Mar 07 remains in progress but is in decline
and should end Mar 12-13. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 11/0215UT. A shock from the
Mar 09 M6 level flare may yet occur day one of the forecast
period. A shock from the M8 level flare of Mar 10 is expected
late day one to early day two of the forecast period.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
11/0215UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 21123222
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 7 21223222
Learmonth 11 32124223
Norfolk_Island 5 11122222
Camden 7 21123222
Canberra 4 11122111
Hobart 8 22133222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
Macquarie_Island 7 12133121
Casey 13 33323233
Mawson 23 43223264
Davis 15 33333333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18 4433 2342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 35 Active to Minor Storm
13 Mar 50 Storm Levels
14 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 10 March and
is current for interval 11-13 March. Solar wind parameters remained
relatively undisturbed. The predicted shock from the M6 level
flare of Mar 09 has not yet eventuated. The regional geomagnetic
field at low to mid latitudes was Quiet with isolated Unsettled
intervals. At high latitudes it was Quiet with Unsettled to Active
periods. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
beginning 11/0215UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity. A shock from the Mar 09 flare may yet occur
day one of the forecast period. A shock from the M8 level flare of
Mar 10 is expected late day one to early day two of the forecast
period. Active to Geomagnetic Storm conditions possible days
one and two, becoming Unsettled to Active day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 03 2012 0530UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
13 Mar Normal Fair Poor
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Continuing poor ionospheric support at high latitudes
next two to three days due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
Proton event remains in progress but is declining.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40-60% 08-22UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night
and after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin enhanced 40-60% 06-18UT.
Townsville depressed 20% 09-15UT.
Learmonth depressed 20-40% 01-06UT, 13-20UT,
enhanced 30% 09-10UT.
Other stations depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Periods of strong sporadic-E around local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Ionospheric support intermittent.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption
to -2dB observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
14 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
COMMENT: Highly variable conditions observed Equatorial/N Aus
regions with strong enhancements at times. Ongoing disturbances
S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. Expect further ionospheric disturbance
days one to three affecting higher latitudes. SWF's possible
local day mainly Equatorial/Aus regions. Disturbances possibly
extending at times to S Aus region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 519 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 31900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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