[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 12 issued 2349 UT on 09 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 10 10:50:02 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION:* YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    0327UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.1    0334UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M6.3    0354UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 146/100


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Mar             11 Mar             12 Mar
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            150/105

COMMENT: Active Region 1429(N18W13) is the dominant feature on 
the visible solar disk. It remains large and magnetically complex 
with little change observed over the period. It produced a long-duration 
M6 level flare at 0353 with associated Type II radio sweep (1285 
km/s) observed on the Learmonth Radio Spectrograph. A type IV 
noise continuum followed for several hours. LASCO C2 imagery 
shows a full-halo CME following the flare, which appears Earth-directed. 
Estimated shock arrival time is early on the UT day Mar 11. Newly 
numbered region 1432 ner the East limb produced a C9 level flare 
at 2025UT. Solar wind stream remains under the influence of the 
shock front from the Mar 07 X5 level flare. Wind speed declined 
from 650 to 550 km/s over the UT day. After about 02UT the Bz 
component of the IMF turned strongly Southward maintaining about 
-20nT for some hours before gradually trending towards neutral 
by 14UT. The >10MeV proton event which began on Mar 07 is still 
in progress with proton fluxes slowly declining.





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet to Major Storm

Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      36   45565422
      Darwin              36   55555423
      Townsville          34   55555412
      Learmonth           35   55555422
      Norfolk Island      32   45654322
      Camden              40   45665422
      Canberra            36   45565412
      Hobart              55   46-76522    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    78   46777632
      Casey               54   67654334
      Mawson              65   57765434
      Davis               48   5-------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar : 
      Darwin              65   (Active)
      Townsville           7   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs       11   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            99   (Minor storm)
      Canberra           119   (Major storm)
      Hobart             103   (Major storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        46
           Planetary             73                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             28   2115 5643     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Mar    20    Active
11 Mar    60    Storm Levels
12 Mar    30    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is at present under the influence 
of a solar wind shock front from the X5 flare/CME of Mar 07. 
The Bz magnetic component of this front has remained Northward, 
limiting geomagnetic disturbance until early on the UT day Mar 
09, when it turned strongly Southward, approaching -20nT. This 
configuration maintained for several hours, settling to near-neutral 
Bz by about 14UT. In response, regional geomagnetic conditions 
elevated from Active to Minor/Major Storm levels until around 
15UT. A period of Severe Storm activity (Kp >= 7) was recorded 
at Hobart between 06-12UT. Severe Storm intervals were also recorded 
at the Australian Antarctic bases. Conditions should decline 
to Unsettled on day one of the forecast period, but Active to 
Minor Storm intervals are possible. The large sunspot region 
which produced this event has produced an M6 level flare and 
CME at 09/0353. The CME appears Earth-directed with estimated 
arrival time early on the UT day Mar 11. Active to Major Storm 
conditions are possible days two and three of the forecast period. 
Energetic particle fluxes remain elevated, although slowly declining. 
The >10MeV proton event which began Mar 07 is still in progress. 
Continuing proton flux elevation is possible following the anticipated 
shock arrival on day two.


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Fair           Poor           

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 03 2012 1630UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor(PCA)
11 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor
12 Mar      Fair           Fair           Poor

COMMENT: Continuing poor ionospheric support at high latitudes 
next three days due to elevated geomagnetic activity and proton 
event in progress.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Mar    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      No data after 16UT. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin variable enhancements/depressions local evening.
      Townsville enhanced by 40% 11-18UT. 
      Brisbane enhanced by 20-40% 09-13UT. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Canberra, Sydney depressed 40-50% 15-23UT.
      Hobart depressed 20-50% with periods of spread-F 08-23UT.
      Regional depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption 
      to -4dB observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                20% possible at times.
11 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                20% possible at times.
12 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                20% possible at times.

COMMENT: Variable enhancements / depressions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Shortwave fadeout observed briefly E Aus and for 
1 hour W Aus following M-class solar flare 0350UT. Weak ionosphere 
Antarctic region with increased absorption local day. Expect 
continuing moderate geomagnetic disturbances day one. Little 
ionospheric support expected Antarctic region days one and two. 
Disturbances possibly extending at times to S Aus region. Variable 
conditions likely Equatorial / N Aus regions. Expect further 
geomagnetic disturbance affecting S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions 
days two and three

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+09
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+08
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 289 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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