[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 12 issued 2340 UT on 08 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 9 10:40:39 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Mar             10 Mar             11 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Following the intense activity of Mar 07, solar activity 
on Mar 08 was low. Only two impulsive C-class flares were observed 
over the period. Active region 1429 (N18E04) remains large and 
complex and maintains potential for further M- to X-class flare 
production. Solar wind speed is indeterminate due to the ongoing 
SEP event, but will be elevated following a shock passage observed 
at the ACE satellite platform at 08/1045UT. Following shock arrival, 
the Bz component of the IMF stepped to +40 nT and remained above 
+20 nT for 1.5 hours before settling to about +10 nT. This was 
the anticipated passage of the CME associated with the Mar 07 
X-class flare. Low energy proton fluxes increased by about one 
order of magnitude at the time of shock passage but have declined 
to pre-shock levels by the time of report issue - still two orders 
of magnitude above nominal levels following the Mar 04 event. 
The >10MeV proton event which began on Mar 07 remains in 
progress, with proton flux above 1600 pfu at the time of report 
issue.





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Unsettled to Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   12234333
      Darwin              12   212-4333
      Townsville          15   122-5333
      Learmonth           21   222-5444
      Norfolk Island      12   211-4333
      Camden              15   122-5333
      Canberra            10   01124333
      Hobart              14   12244333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    25   11146543
      Casey               57   45566565
      Mawson              46   44356556
      Davis               38   43356455

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        5   (Quiet)
      Gnangara           102   (Major storm)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              73   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             27                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        33
           Planetary             64   3566 7744     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Mar    20    Unsettled to Active
10 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: As anticipated, a shock passage from the X-class flare/CME 
of Mar 07 was observed at the ACE satellite platform at 08/1045UT. 
A geomagnetic sudden impulse of 30-40 nT was observed on the 
IPS magnetometer network at 1103UT. The regional geomagnetic 
field at low to mid latitudes was Quiet prior to the event, with 
Minor Storm periods observed following impact from 11-15UT, after 
which conditions declined to Unsettled. At high latitudes conditions 
were mostly Active with Minor to Major Storm periods following 
the sudden impulse and continuing for the remainder of the UT 
day. The embedded Bz component of the CME shock has so far been 
North-biased, limiting geomagnetic disturbance. Expect continuing 
Unsettled conditions day one with the chance of isolated Minor 
Storm intervals. Minor to Major Storm periods possible at high 
latitudes. Activity should decline days two and three.


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Poor           

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 03 2012 1630UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor(PCA)
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Poor
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair

COMMENT: Continuing poor ionospheric support at high latitudes 
next three days due to elevated geomagnetic activity and proton 
event in progress.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Mar    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced 20-30% 01-13UT.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 20-50% 00-07UT.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin depressed 20-30% 04-11UT.
      Sporadic-E at Townsville 02-07UT.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Hobart spread-F 10-20UT.
      Norfolk Is. sporadic-E 04-06UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption 
      to -6dB observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                20% possible at times.
10 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                20% possible at times.
11 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable enhancements / depressions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Widespread depressions local day Aus region. Weak 
ionosphere Antarctic region with increased absorption local day. 
Expect continuing moderate geomagnetic disturbances day one. 
Little ionospheric support expected Antarctic region days one 
and two. Disturbances possibly extending at times to S Aus region. 
Variable conditions likely Equatorial / N Aus regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.1E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 294 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   103000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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