[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 12 issued 2352 UT on 07 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 8 10:52:48 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0 06/2254UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  X1.1    0011UT  probable   all    West Pacific
  X5.4    0024UT  probable   all    West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Active region 1429 (N17E29) produced a long-duration 
flare reaching a peak level of X5.4 at 0024UT. During the declining 
phase of this flare there was a second flare at X1.3 level from 
N22E12 at 0115UT. Both flares resulted in fast full-halo CME's 
with estimated velocities of 2200-2500km/s. Type II radio sweeps 
were observed in association with both flares. The >10MeV proton 
flux became strongly elevated following these events exceeding 
the 100pfu event threshold at 07/1015UT and the 1000 pfu threshold 
at 1410UT. These were probably relativistic protons associated 
with the Mar 07 flare sequence. Low energy proton and electron 
fluxes increased steadily over the first half of the UT day. 
These were probably associated with a minor shock observed in 
the solar wind at around 04UT. This shock is thought to be resultant 
from the M-class flare observed Mar 04 and/or the X-class flare 
observed Mar 05. All energetic particle fluxes remain elevated 
at the time of report issue. Solar wind speed remains elevated. 
The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field was strongly 
southward (-20 nT)for some hours after the shock. Over the second 
half of the UT day it fluctuated +/-10 nT, with amplitude gradually 
declining towards the end of the day. A major shock from the 
flare sequence of 07 Mar is expected at the Earth as early as 
the first half of the UT day today. ACE EPAM data indicates an 
energetic ion enhancement event beginning 07/0835UT, which can 
be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 
hours.





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      26   33554433
      Darwin              23   43454333
      Townsville          27   43554433
      Learmonth           30   33555443
      Norfolk Island      25   33554423
      Camden              26   33554433
      Canberra            21   34454322
      Hobart              37   24665433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    62   35766644
      Casey               33   44644444
      Mawson              74   54665458
      Davis               49   44665446

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar : 
      Darwin              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            69   (Active)
      Hobart              52   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        36
           Planetary             50                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   3230 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar    60    Storm Levels
09 Mar    30    Active to Minor Storm
10 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 8 March and 
is current for 8-9 Mar In the IPS magnetometer data for 07 Mar, 
a weak (13nT) impulse was observed at 0421UT. Following this 
weak shock in the solar wind the regional geomagnetic field was 
Active with isolated Minor Storm periods over the mid part of 
the UT day, declining to Unsettled later in the day. Storm periods 
were observed throughout the UT day at high latitudes. A significant 
solar flare sequence occurred early on Mar 07. A fast solar wind 
shock resultant from these events is anticipated to reach the 
Earth later on Mar 08. Expect Active to Major Storm conditions 
later on day one and persisting into day two. Conditions may 
remain Unsettled day three if a Southward bias in the Bz component 
remains fixed in the post-shock solar wind stream.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 03 2012 1630UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Fair           Poor(PCA)
09 Mar      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of disturbance likely at high latitudes due 
to elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Mar    88

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
      Spread-F observed Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Poor ionospheric support over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed
      Mar 07 and after local dawn Mar 08.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar    60    Mostly near predicated monthly values. Depressions 
                to 20% possible at times.
09 Mar    50    Near predicted values. Depressions to 20% possible 
                at times.
10 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Highly variable enhancements / depressions observed 
Equatorial region. Widespread depressions after local dawn Aus 
region. Weak ionosphere Antarctic region. Expect major geomagnetic 
disturbances days one and two. Little ionospheric support expected 
Antarctic region days one and two. Disturbances possibly extending 
at times to S Aus region. Variable conditions likely Equatorial 
/ N Aus regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    34400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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