[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 12 issued 2352 UT on 07 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 8 10:52:48 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 06/2254UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X1.1 0011UT probable all West Pacific
X5.4 0024UT probable all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Active region 1429 (N17E29) produced a long-duration
flare reaching a peak level of X5.4 at 0024UT. During the declining
phase of this flare there was a second flare at X1.3 level from
N22E12 at 0115UT. Both flares resulted in fast full-halo CME's
with estimated velocities of 2200-2500km/s. Type II radio sweeps
were observed in association with both flares. The >10MeV proton
flux became strongly elevated following these events exceeding
the 100pfu event threshold at 07/1015UT and the 1000 pfu threshold
at 1410UT. These were probably relativistic protons associated
with the Mar 07 flare sequence. Low energy proton and electron
fluxes increased steadily over the first half of the UT day.
These were probably associated with a minor shock observed in
the solar wind at around 04UT. This shock is thought to be resultant
from the M-class flare observed Mar 04 and/or the X-class flare
observed Mar 05. All energetic particle fluxes remain elevated
at the time of report issue. Solar wind speed remains elevated.
The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field was strongly
southward (-20 nT)for some hours after the shock. Over the second
half of the UT day it fluctuated +/-10 nT, with amplitude gradually
declining towards the end of the day. A major shock from the
flare sequence of 07 Mar is expected at the Earth as early as
the first half of the UT day today. ACE EPAM data indicates an
energetic ion enhancement event beginning 07/0835UT, which can
be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36
hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 26 33554433
Darwin 23 43454333
Townsville 27 43554433
Learmonth 30 33555443
Norfolk Island 25 33554423
Camden 26 33554433
Canberra 21 34454322
Hobart 37 24665433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
Macquarie Island 62 35766644
Casey 33 44644444
Mawson 74 54665458
Davis 49 44665446
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Darwin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 69 (Active)
Hobart 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 36
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3230 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 60 Storm Levels
09 Mar 30 Active to Minor Storm
10 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 8 March and
is current for 8-9 Mar In the IPS magnetometer data for 07 Mar,
a weak (13nT) impulse was observed at 0421UT. Following this
weak shock in the solar wind the regional geomagnetic field was
Active with isolated Minor Storm periods over the mid part of
the UT day, declining to Unsettled later in the day. Storm periods
were observed throughout the UT day at high latitudes. A significant
solar flare sequence occurred early on Mar 07. A fast solar wind
shock resultant from these events is anticipated to reach the
Earth later on Mar 08. Expect Active to Major Storm conditions
later on day one and persisting into day two. Conditions may
remain Unsettled day three if a Southward bias in the Bz component
remains fixed in the post-shock solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 03 2012 1630UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Fair Poor(PCA)
09 Mar Normal Fair Fair-poor
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of disturbance likely at high latitudes due
to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Spread-F observed Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Poor ionospheric support over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed
Mar 07 and after local dawn Mar 08.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar 60 Mostly near predicated monthly values. Depressions
to 20% possible at times.
09 Mar 50 Near predicted values. Depressions to 20% possible
at times.
10 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Highly variable enhancements / depressions observed
Equatorial region. Widespread depressions after local dawn Aus
region. Weak ionosphere Antarctic region. Expect major geomagnetic
disturbances days one and two. Little ionospheric support expected
Antarctic region days one and two. Disturbances possibly extending
at times to S Aus region. Variable conditions likely Equatorial
/ N Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 34400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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