[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 12 issued 2334 UT on 06 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 7 10:34:32 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: * YELLOW *
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3 05/2235UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.3    0028UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.2    0144UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    0405UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.0    0755UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M2.1    1241UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.3    2111UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.0    2254UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Mar             08 Mar             09 Mar
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate to high with Active Region 
1429 (N17E31) producing numerous impulsive flares at the high 
C- to M1 level. The most significant was an M2 level flare of 
relatively short duration at 1241UT. A slow NE-directed CME was 
first visible in LASCO C3 imagery after 07UT. It does not appear 
to be Earth-directed. AR 1429 showed some growth over the period 
with trailing spot groups emerging to the N and E. It maintains 
potential for further significant flare activity. AR 1430 (N20E13) 
also showed some growth in the trailing spot group. The >10MeV 
proton flux remains elevated, but below event threshold. There 
was some enhancement observed in low-energy protons over the 
mid-part of the UT day. Solar wind speed remained steady at around 
380 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF remained moderately negative 
at -5nT with sharp positive excursions around 0630 and 1330UT.





-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Mostly quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active levels at high latitudes
only.

Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22212122
      Darwin               6   22212122
      Townsville           6   22212122
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Norfolk Island       6   31212112
      Camden               7   22213122
      Canberra             3   21102111
      Hobart               8   22313222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     9   22314212
      Casey               18   34533223
      Mawson              29   54423246
      Davis               30   43534336

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary              9   2223 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Mar    20    Active
08 Mar    12    Unsettled
09 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 6 March and 
is current for 7-8 Mar Active to minor storm periods are expected 
on day one due to combined effects from the CME's associated 
with the M-class flare of Mar 04 and a possible glancing blow 
from the X-class flare of Mar 05. Conditions should decline day 
two remaining quiet to unsettled day three as a S. hemisphere 
coronal hole rotates into geoeffective position.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of disturbance possible at high latitudes days 
one to two due to elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Mar    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Mar    60    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions 
                to 25% possible at times.
08 Mar    60    Mostly near predicated monthly values. Depressions 
                to 20% possible at times.
09 Mar    60    Near predicted values. Depressions to 20% possible 
                at times.

COMMENT: Depressions to 50% at Niue 13-17UT. Depressions to 40% 
Cocos Islands 13-17UT. Depressions 20-40% Perth and Learmonth. 
Generally weak ionospheric support Antarctic region. Expect periods 
of disturbance S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions days one and two due 
to anticipated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    37200 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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