[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 12 issued 2334 UT on 06 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 7 10:34:32 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:* YELLOW * ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 05/2235UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 0028UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.2 0144UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0405UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0755UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.1 1241UT possible lower European
M1.3 2111UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 2254UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate to high with Active Region
1429 (N17E31) producing numerous impulsive flares at the high
C- to M1 level. The most significant was an M2 level flare of
relatively short duration at 1241UT. A slow NE-directed CME was
first visible in LASCO C3 imagery after 07UT. It does not appear
to be Earth-directed. AR 1429 showed some growth over the period
with trailing spot groups emerging to the N and E. It maintains
potential for further significant flare activity. AR 1430 (N20E13)
also showed some growth in the trailing spot group. The >10MeV
proton flux remains elevated, but below event threshold. There
was some enhancement observed in low-energy protons over the
mid-part of the UT day. Solar wind speed remained steady at around
380 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF remained moderately negative
at -5nT with sharp positive excursions around 0630 and 1330UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Mostly quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active levels at high latitudes
only.
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22212122
Darwin 6 22212122
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk Island 6 31212112
Camden 7 22213122
Canberra 3 21102111
Hobart 8 22313222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
Macquarie Island 9 22314212
Casey 18 34533223
Mawson 29 54423246
Davis 30 43534336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 9 2223 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 20 Active
08 Mar 12 Unsettled
09 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 6 March and
is current for 7-8 Mar Active to minor storm periods are expected
on day one due to combined effects from the CME's associated
with the M-class flare of Mar 04 and a possible glancing blow
from the X-class flare of Mar 05. Conditions should decline day
two remaining quiet to unsettled day three as a S. hemisphere
coronal hole rotates into geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of disturbance possible at high latitudes days
one to two due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 60 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
to 25% possible at times.
08 Mar 60 Mostly near predicated monthly values. Depressions
to 20% possible at times.
09 Mar 60 Near predicted values. Depressions to 20% possible
at times.
COMMENT: Depressions to 50% at Niue 13-17UT. Depressions to 40%
Cocos Islands 13-17UT. Depressions 20-40% Perth and Learmonth.
Generally weak ionospheric support Antarctic region. Expect periods
of disturbance S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions days one and two due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 37200 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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