[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 12 issued 2349 UT on 05 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 6 10:49:41 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.1    0410UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.1    1916UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.8    1930UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.3    2235UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Mar             07 Mar             08 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: A long-duration flare reaching the X1 level originating 
in Active Region 1429 (N15E54) was observed 03-09UT today. Peak 
X-ray flux was observed at 0409UT. Associated with this event 
was a bright EIT wave with dimming and a front-side full-halo 
CME. Estimated shock speed is 1300-1500 km/s. A greater than 
10MeV proton flux enhancement started around 05/01UT and remains 
in progress. This was possibly due to the M-class flare sequence 
observed Mar 04, with further contribution from the X class flare 
of Mar 05. A glancing blow from the Mar 05 CME is possible at 
the Earth Mar 07-08. Following the X-class flare was a sequence 
of C- to M-class flares originating in AR 1429 and solar radio 
noise continua over the remainder of the UT day. Solar wind speed 
remained steady at around 380 km/s and Bz remains slightly negatively 
biased at around -5nT.





-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Mostly quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active levels at high latitudes
only.

Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11232222
      Darwin               7   11222223
      Townsville           7   21132222
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Norfolk Island       7   22222222
      Camden               6   11231222
      Canberra             4   11121112
      Hobart               6   11232212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    15   12353412
      Casey               12   33232233
      Mawson              34   44433266
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14   5333 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Mar    20    Active
08 Mar    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 6 March and 
is current for 7-8 Mar The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet 
with an isolated Unsettled period 09-12UT at low to mid latitudes. 
Conditions were Unsettled with Active intervals at high latitudes. 
Expect similar conditions day one. A glancing blow from a solar 
CME observed Mar 05 is possible on Mar 07-08 bringing Active 
conditions with the chance of Minor to Major Storm intervals.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of disturbance possible at high latitudes days 
two to three due to elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Mar    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values.
07 Mar    60    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions 
                to 25% possible at times.
08 Mar    60    Mostly near predicated monthly values. Depressions 
                to 20% possible at times.

COMMENT: Variable depressions / enhancements observed equatorial/N 
Aus regions. HF fadeout observed most Aus stations following 
an X-class solar flare peaking at 0409UT. Periods of disturbance 
possible days two to three mainly S Aus / Antarctic regions due 
to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 382 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    50400 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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