[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 12 issued 2329 UT on 04 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 5 10:29:32 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.0    1055UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 120/72

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Mar             06 Mar             07 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Region 11427 (N15W34) has decayed while regions 11428 
(S17E38) and 11429 (N18E55) have shown growth. There is a new 
region to the west of 11428. Region 11429 produced three C and 
the M flares while 11427 produced a C flare. The CME late 3 Mar 
is unlikely to be geo-effective. There was a CME associated with 
a filament eruption in the northeast quadrant around 0524 UT 
and another associated with region 11429 around 1124 UT; both 
observed in STEREO images. Either could be geo-effective. ACE 
data show the IMF Bz component was again mostly southward, to 
7 nT, with the wind speed less than 400 km/s. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to be moderately disturbed over the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   31322221
      Darwin               9   31322231
      Townsville           8   31322221
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Norfolk_Island       6   30222221
      Camden               8   21332221
      Canberra             4   20222210
      Hobart              11   32333231
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
      Macquarie_Island    18   34353-02
      Casey                -   --------
      Mawson              22   54333244
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       13   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2332 1212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods possible. 
06 Mar    14    Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm 
                levels possible at higher latitudes. 
07 Mar    12    Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible. 

COMMENT: Continued mild activity due to southward IMF, active 
to minor storm levels observed at high latitudes. Later 5 Mar, 
activity is likely to increase due to the effects of the CME 
from 29 Feb, high latitudes may experence some minor storm levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
06 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
07 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Mar    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      40% 14-19 UT then depressions to 20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      25% 07-13 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      25% 03-17 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      20%  mostly 03-18 UT. Depressions to 30% at Canberra
      Sydney and Hobart 00-09 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly 10-25% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Mar    70    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions 
                to 20% possible at times. 
06 Mar    70    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions 
                to 20% possible at times. 
07 Mar    60    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions 
                to 25% possible at times. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    28900 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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