[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 12 issued 2328 UT on 03 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 4 10:28:42 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 116/68

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Mar             05 Mar             06 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: The CME off the northeast limb, associated with 2 Mar 
M3.3 flare from new region 11429 (N18E68), is unlikely to be 
geo-effective. The six, low-level, C flares observed 3 Mar were 
associated with regions 11427 (N15W31) and 11429. There is also 
another new region, 11428 (S17E51). A CME was observed in STEREO 
images at 1855 UT, probably related to region 11429 activity; 
further images are required to determine its path. Solar wind 
speed decreased from 420 to ~380 km/s while the IMF Bz was mostly 
southward to 6 nT. Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly 
disturbed 4 and 5 Mar. There is likely to be an increase in activity 
late 5 or 6 Mar due to the effects of the CME on 29 Feb. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Mostly quiet to
unsettled. Isolated active levels. 

Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21331312
      Darwin               6   21221312
      Townsville           7   21231302
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Norfolk_Island       7   21331212
      Camden               8   12341211
      Canberra             6   11331201
      Hobart              10   22341312
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
      Macquarie_Island     -   --------
      Casey                -   --------
      Mawson               -   --------
      Davis                -   --------
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   3331 3122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled, possible isolated active 
                periods. 
05 Mar    10    Mostly quiet. Unsettled to active periods later. 
06 Mar    14    Unsettled with isolated active periods. 

COMMENT: Continued activity due to the near constant southward 
IMF. Expect similar conditions 4 Mar. Later 5 Mar, activity is 
likely to increase due to the effects of at CME from 29 Feb, 
high latitudes may experence some minor storm levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
05 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
06 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Mar    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      14-20 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
      02-06 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
      11-17 UT at Darwin and 07-17 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
      Depressions to 30% observed at Hobart and Western
      Australian stations.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly 10-30% depressed. Blanketing sporadic E
      observed during night hours.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                25% possible 
05 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                25% possible 
06 Mar    70    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions 
                to 20% possible at times. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 3 March 
and is current for interval 4 March only. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 437 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    61000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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