[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 12 issued 2333 UT on 02 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 3 10:33:45 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.3    1748UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     Low                Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: SDO images indicate the M flare occurred off the northeast 
limb. STEREO A images indicate an associated CME. Further images 
will be required to determine the trajectory. Region 11423 (N17W33) 
was stable while region 11427 (N15W13) decayed. The IMF Bz component 
was mostly southward to 6 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 
420-500 km/s. The CME from 29 Feb is not expected until 5 Mar. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22323211
      Darwin               7   22223222
      Townsville          11   32223222
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Norfolk_Island       7   21322212
      Camden               8   22323211
      Canberra             5   21213211
      Hobart              13   33324321
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
      Macquarie_Island    11   32------
      Casey               21   34------
      Mawson              48   55------
      Davis               27   4-------
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15   0434 3243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Active to minor storm levels at high latitudes. Isolated 
active levels at higher latitudes 3 and 4 Mar. CME effects likely
to begin 5 Mar; expect active to possible minor storm levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair



-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Mar    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 
      20% 00, 06-10 UT and depressions to 20% 17-19 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced to 30% 00-07, 16-18 UT. Near predicted
      monthly values with depressions to 20% 11-12 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      20% 08-21 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly depressed 10 to 30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                25% possible 
04 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                25% possible 
05 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 450 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    75900 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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