[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 12 issued 2329 UT on 01 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 2 10:29:20 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 103/52

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Mar             03 Mar             04 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Region 11427 (N15W01) grew rapidly and produced three 
B-class flares between 2122 UT/29 Feb until the end of the reporting 
period. This region may produce C- or M-class flares. Region 
11423 (N17W21) appeared stable and produced a C3.3 flare at 1526 
UT. SDO images show significant activity in the vicinity of these 
two regions. A CME with an Earth-directed component, was observed 
in LASCO C2 and STEREO images, and is likely associated with 
the activity late 29 Feb from region 11427. ACE data shows the 
solar wind was moderately disturbed with wind speed ranging between 
420-540 km/s and the IMF Bz component mostly positive to 8 nT 
until ~0300 UT, then mostly negative to -7 nT for the remainder 
of the reporting period. This unexpected disturbance may have 
been associated with activity on 27 Feb. Solar wind parameters 
may be mildly disturbed 2 and 3 Feb. The effects of the CME may 
begin as early as 4 Feb, moderately disturbing the solar wind. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to active 

Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      18   24443333
      Darwin              13   24332332
      Townsville          17   24343333
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Norfolk_Island      12   23342232
      Camden              16   14443223
      Canberra            17   13443---
      Hobart              18   24443333
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
      Macquarie_Island    21   13354442
      Casey               24   35543333
      Mawson              47   25533467
      Davis               34   35454355
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar : 
      Darwin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   3220 0011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled 
03 Mar     6    Mostly quiet 
04 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Activity probably due to IMZ Bz component turning southwards 
around 0300 UT. A weak (12nT) impulse was observed at 0313 UT 
in the IPS magnetometer data. Southern high latitudes experienced 
quiet to major storm periods. Isolated active periods possible 
2 Mar. CME effects may begin on 4 Mar; expect active to possible 
minor storm levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Mar    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
      07-18 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20% at
      Darwin 18-21 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20% from
      about 19 UT and at Norfolk Is. 03-06 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                25% possible 
03 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Feb
Speed: 440 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:    44800 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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