[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 February 12 issued 2329 UT on 29 Feb 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 1 10:29:11 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Feb: 102/50

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Mar             02 Mar             03 Mar
Activity     Low                Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Region 11423 (N17W08) is stable while Culgoora Solar 
Observatory reports a new region (Bxo class.) at N17E13. LASCO 
C2 images show three CMEs on the west limb at 0125, 0924 and 
1212 UT. STEREO images indicate they are far side events and 
are not expected to be geo-effective. ACE data show the solar 
wind ranged from about 420-470 km/s with the IMF Bz component 
mostly southward until ~0500 UT, to -6 nT, then mostly northward 
to 8 nT. The solar wind is expected to become mildly disturbed 
2 Mar due to the effects of a coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Feb: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23310112
      Darwin               6   23211112
      Townsville           8   23311222
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Norfolk_Island       3   12200112
      Camden               6   13310112
      Canberra             4   13300011
      Hobart               5   23300111
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Feb :
      Macquarie_Island     2   12200011
      Casey               18   54521112
      Mawson              12   45310111
      Davis               15   34522221
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Feb : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   1152 1223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Mar     6    Mostly quiet 
02 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
03 Mar     7    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Southern high latitudes were at active to minor storm 
levels until 09 UT then quiet. The effects of a coronal hole 
should mildly increase activity on 2 Mar. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Feb    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depression to 25%
      at 23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% observed
      at Norfolk Is. 00-14 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Mar    85    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Mar    85    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 431 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    91700 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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