[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 February 12 issued 2329 UT on 29 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 1 10:29:11 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Feb: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Region 11423 (N17W08) is stable while Culgoora Solar
Observatory reports a new region (Bxo class.) at N17E13. LASCO
C2 images show three CMEs on the west limb at 0125, 0924 and
1212 UT. STEREO images indicate they are far side events and
are not expected to be geo-effective. ACE data show the solar
wind ranged from about 420-470 km/s with the IMF Bz component
mostly southward until ~0500 UT, to -6 nT, then mostly northward
to 8 nT. The solar wind is expected to become mildly disturbed
2 Mar due to the effects of a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 23310112
Darwin 6 23211112
Townsville 8 23311222
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk_Island 3 12200112
Camden 6 13310112
Canberra 4 13300011
Hobart 5 23300111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Feb :
Macquarie_Island 2 12200011
Casey 18 54521112
Mawson 12 45310111
Davis 15 34522221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Feb :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 1152 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 6 Mostly quiet
02 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled
03 Mar 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Southern high latitudes were at active to minor storm
levels until 09 UT then quiet. The effects of a coronal hole
should mildly increase activity on 2 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Feb 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depression to 25%
at 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% observed
at Norfolk Is. 00-14 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 85 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 85 Near predicted monthly values
03 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 91700 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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