[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 23 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 24 09:29:07 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun
Activity Very Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low. A long-duration
C2 flare peaked at 23/0750, with a CME erupting from the northwest
limb shortly beforehand. LASCO and STEREO imagery suggests that
the CME is not likely to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low for the next 3 days. The solar wind varied
between 400-450km/s and the IMF Bz component varied between +/-4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11110110
Darwin 2 10210210
Townsville 5 11221221
Learmonth 7 2222----
Norfolk Island 1 01110110
Camden 1 00110100
Canberra 1 00110100
Hobart 1 00120100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 00130000
Casey 5 22321110
Mawson 5 21211122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1111 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jun 5 Quiet
25 Jun 5 Quiet
26 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours
and are expected to remain so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jun 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jun 55 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 55 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 55 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over most of the Australian
region during the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to be depressed
by up to 20% in the Australian region over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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