[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 24 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 25 09:29:05 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next
3 days, though there is chance of higher activity from previously
active regions 1494, 1496 and 1499 which are due to return during
the forecast period. The solar wind declined from ~400km/s to
~~350km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral, with a positive
bias.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 5 22221211
Learmonth 4 21122111
Norfolk Island 2 21101011
Camden 1 10111000
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22211101
Mawson 7 42121112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 9 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1012 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 5 Quiet
26 Jun 5 Quiet
27 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours
and are expected to remain so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 45 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
26 Jun 45 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
27 Jun 50 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 24 June
and is current for 25-26 Jun. MUF depressions were observed over
most of the Australian region during the last 24 hours. MUFs
are expected to be depressed by up to 35% in the Australian region
over the next 2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 66300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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