[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 22 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 23 09:29:18 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Very Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Very low to low activity is expected for the next three days.
The solar wind speed varied between 400-450km/s over the UT day
and the IMF Bz component varied between +/-6nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11122000
Darwin 3 11222000
Townsville 5 12222211
Learmonth 7 22233111
Norfolk Island 3 12112011
Camden 2 -1112000
Canberra 1 00112000
Hobart 1 00112000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 00223100
Casey 9 23323211
Mawson 8 32332110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 5 Quiet
24 Jun 5 Quiet
25 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours
and are expected to remain so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 55 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of mild MUF depressions were observed over most
of the Australian region during the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near monthly predicted values to mildly depressed
in the Australian region over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 77200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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