[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 12 issued 2355 UT on 16 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 17 09:55:25 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several low C-class flares
were observed today, the largest being a C2.4 flare from region
1504(S17W27) that peaked at 0048 UT. Solar wind speed increased
from 310 km/s to 520 km/s through the UT day today. Three sudden
impulses were observed at 0957UT, 20129UT and 2115UT. A weak
shock was observed in the solar wind at 0858UT on 16 June, and
another weak shock was observed at 1929UT on 16 June. The Bz
component of IMF stayed between +/-6 nT until around mid day
and then showed variations of up to around +25/-18UT today. Low
to moderate levels of solar activity may be expected for the
next three days. The effect of the CMEs observed on 13 and 14
June may continue to strengthen the solar wind stream late on
17 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 14 11133335
Darwin 17 11132336
Townsville 20 12232436
Learmonth 18 22143435
Norfolk Island 13 11032335
Camden 13 11133325
Canberra 12 01033325
Hobart 9 00033324
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
Macquarie Island 7 00023323
Casey 15 12133335
Mawson 11 21132334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 20 (Quiet)
Townsville 14 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gnangara 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1001 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: As anticipated, the geomagnetic activity enhanced up
to Active levels today with some minor storm periods. This is
a result of arrival of CMEs observed on 13 and 14 June. ACE EPAM
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 16/0605UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over
next 24-36 hours. Unsettled to Active levels of activity may
be expected for 17 June and then gradually decline to quiet to
unsettled on 18 June and further decline to quiet levels on 19
June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed
today. Minor to moderate MUF depressions on 17 June may be expected.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 18 and 19 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
18 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed
today. Minor to moderate MUF depressions on 17 June may be expected.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 18 and 19 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 44600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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