[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 12 issued 2354 UT on 17 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 18 09:54:11 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Today's largest flare
was a C3.9 flare from region 1504(S17W39). This flare peaked
at 1740 UT. The effect of the previously reported CMEs kept
the solar wind stream strong. The effect showed gradual
weakening over the UT day today. Solar wind speed decreased
from 500 km/s to 420 km/s through the UT day today. The Bz
component of IMF mostly varied between +/-15nT staying southwards
for relatively longer periods of time. Solar activity is expected
to stay at Low levels for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated M-class activity from region 1504. The effect of a
recurrent coronal hole may strengthen the solar wind stream
from 20 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 21 33354432
Darwin 20 43344432
Townsville 21 43344433
Learmonth 30 34455533
Norfolk Island 14 33343322
Camden 18 33353332
Canberra 17 33353322
Hobart 21 23364322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
Macquarie Island 47 23765543
Casey 17 34433323
Mawson 55 45664347
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 38
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 17 1102 3346
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 10 Unsettled to Active
19 Jun 5 Quiet
20 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied from unsettled to isolated
minor storm levels today. Mostly unsettled levels of activity
may be expected on 18 June with some possibility of isolated
active periods on this day. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
for 19 June. Activity levels may increase to unsettled levels
on 20 June due a coronal hole effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions may be observed on
18 June. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 19 and
20 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions may be observed on 18 June. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected on 19 and 20 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 66200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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