[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 12 issued 2355 UT on 16 Jun 2012

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 17 09:55:16 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several low C-class flares 
were observed today, the largest being a C2.4 flare from region 
1504(S17W27) that peaked at 0048 UT. Solar wind speed increased 
from 310 km/s to 520 km/s through the UT day today. Three sudden 
impulses were observed at 0957UT, 20129UT and 2115UT. A weak 
shock was observed in the solar wind at 0858UT on 16 June, and 
another weak shock was observed at 1929UT on 16 June. The Bz 
component of IMF stayed between +/-6 nT until around mid day 
and then showed variations of up to around +25/-18UT today. Low 
to moderate levels of solar activity may be expected for the 
next three days. The effect of the CMEs observed on 13 and 14 
June may continue to strengthen the solar wind stream late on 
17 June. 

A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0858UT 
on 16 Jun, and a possible weak shock was observed in the solar 
wind at 1929UT on 16 Jun. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
16/0605UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   11133335
      Darwin              17   11132336
      Townsville          20   12232436
      Learmonth           18   22143435
      Norfolk_Island      13   11032335
      Camden              13   11133325
      Canberra            12   01033325
      Hobart               9   00033324
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
      Macquarie_Island     7   00023323
      Casey               15   12133335
      Mawson              11   21132334
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun : 
      Darwin              20   (Quiet)
      Townsville          14   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        5   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1001 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
18 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Jun     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: As anicipated, the geomagnetic activity enhanced up 
to Active levels today with some minor storm periods. This is 
a result of arrival of CMEs observed on 13 and 14 June. ACE EPAM 
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 16/0605UT,

which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over 
next 24-36 hours. Unsettled to Active levels of activity may 
be expected for 17 June and then gradually decline to quiet to 
unsettled on 18 June and further decline to quiet levels on 19 
June. 

A weak (17nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 2115UT on 16 Jun. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed 
today. Minor to moderate MUF depressions on 17 June may be expected. 
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 18 and 19 June. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jun    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20% 
18 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed 
today. Minor to moderate MUF depressions on 17 June may be expected. 
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 18 and 19 June. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    44600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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