[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 12 issued 2352 UT on 11 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 12 09:52:06 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several low C-class flares
were observed today. Most of these flares came from region 1507(S26E17).
Region 1507 and region 1504(S17E40) showed further growth during
the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed varied between 400 and 450
km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF stayed
mostly on the negative side between -5 and -8nT during this time.
A glancing CME impact is possible on 12 June and a coronal hole
wind stream is anticipated for 12-13 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 10 22322233
Darwin 9 22222233
Townsville 8 22222232
Learmonth 14 2333324-
Norfolk Island 8 22222133
Camden 9 12322233
Canberra 8 12322232
Hobart 9 12322233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
Macquarie Island 21 1153533-
Casey 7 2312222-
Mawson 46 34333384
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1000 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 12 Unsettled to Active
13 Jun 10 Unsettled
14 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet to Unsettled today.
A further rise in activity up to Active levels may happen on
12 June due to a possible glancing blow from a CME and effect of
high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay mostly at Unsettled levels on 13
June and then gradually decline to Quiet to Unsettled levels
on 14 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and MUF
depressions, especially at high and some mid latitude locations,
may be observed on 12 and 13 June. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected on 14 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
13 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
14 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions may be observed, especially
at high and some mid latitude locations on 12 and 13 June due
to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these
days. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 14 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 40100 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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