[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 12 issued 2341 UT on 10 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 11 09:41:21 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0646UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: An M1-flare was observed from region 1504 located in
the SE during 10 June. Further isolated M-class flares are possible
from this region for 11 June. No significant earth directed CMEs
were observed during 10 June. A glancing CME impact is possible
during 11-12 June and a coronal hole wind stream is anticipated
for 12-13 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 5 12212212
Learmonth 6 12122222
Norfolk Island 2 12001111
Camden 2 01101112
Canberra 1 01001101
Hobart 1 00002101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00002100
Casey 5 12201213
Mawson 12 01001126
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2211 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 10 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with the small chance
of isolated Active levels
12 Jun 10 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with the small chance
of isolated Active levels
13 Jun 10 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with the small chance
of isolated Active levels
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected for the
next few days with the small chance of isolated Active levels
at times due to the anticipated glancing CME impact and coronal
hole wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with the chance of isolated slight depressions at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with the chance of isolated slight depressions at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 29400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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