[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 12 issued 2349 UT on 12 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 13 09:49:30 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several low C-class
flares were observed mainly from regions 1507(S27E02),
1506(N11E38) and 1504(S17E28). All these regions showed
further growth during the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed
varied between 380 and 420 km/s during the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF went negative up to -10 nT in the
early hours of the day and then stayed mostly between -5 and
+5 nT during the rest of the day. Low to moderate levels of
solar activity may be expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with
isolated Active periods on high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 32111111
Darwin 4 23111011
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 8 33222211
Norfolk Island 4 32111110
Camden 5 32211110
Canberra 2 22100100
Hobart 4 32111100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
Macquarie Island 10 53221000
Casey 7 33211112
Mawson 20 64322123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 2232 2345
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 7 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jun 5 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet to
Unsettled levels today with isolated Active periods on
some high latitude locations. Geomagnetic activity is
expected to stay mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels on
13 June and then gradually decline to Quiet levels on
14 and 15 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
MUF depressions were observed on most locations today.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed on most
locations today. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 44100 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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