[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 12 issued 2334 UT on 28 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 29 09:34:40 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.1 2056UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the UT day due to an isolated
M6.1 X-ray flare event from AR1532 (S22E46) at 2056UT. A predominantly
south-westward directed CME is visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery
of the early part of this event, although confirmation awaits
additional imagery from both SOHO and STEREO. The source location
on the Sun and the southward component of the early part of the
CME suggests it is unlikely to have a significant impact. Solar
activity is expected to be Low 29 Jul, with the chance of further
isolated M-flares from AR1532. The solar wind speed remained
below 400km/s over the UT day, however the IMF had a period of
sustained southwards orientation for most of the second half
of the UT day. Expect elevated solar wind speeds next three days
due to a coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 11222321
Darwin 6 12222222
Townsville 8 12222332
Norfolk Island 5 21112222
Camden 6 11222321
Canberra 6 11222320
Hobart 7 11213321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
Macquarie Island 9 01115320
Casey 8 23322221
Mawson 24 12211366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1111 1202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 12 Unsettled
30 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet for the first half of
28 Jul, becoming Unsettled for the second half of the day due
to an extended southwards IMF orientation. A high speed coronal
hole wind stream may result in Unsettled to Active geomagnetic
conditions on day 1 (29 Jul), with Quiet-Unsettled conditions
days 2 and 3 (30-31 Jul). A weak CME may arrive 29 Jul but is
not expected to have a significant impact.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
No data available over UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 28 Jul, with MUFs mostly
near predicted monthly values. Significant variability was observed
in the equatorial regions. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values 29 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 29700 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list