[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 12 issued 2334 UT on 29 Jul 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 30 09:34:20 EST 2012 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.3    0622UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jul             31 Jul             01 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   132/86             135/89             138/92

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the UT day with an 
isolated M2.3 X-ray flare event from AR1532 (S22E30) at 0622UT. 
Full SOHO LASCO imagery is not yet available for this event, 
however STEREO imagery shows no evidence of an associated CME. 
An erupting filament from the south-east quadrant produced a 
slow south-eastward directed CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery 
at 00UT. The source location on the Sun and the southward component 
of the early part of the CME suggests it is unlikely to be geoeffective. 
Solar activity is expected to be Low 30 Jul, with the chance 
of further isolated M-flares from AR1532. WSA-Enlil modelling 
of the CME from 28-Jul suggests a glancing blow on 02 Aug, but 
the slow speed and predominant southward direction of the CME 
should make any impact minor. The solar wind speed increased 
under the influence of a weak coronal hole wind stream, but remained 
below 450km/s over the UT day.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22230011
      Darwin               4   22220011
      Townsville           7   22231122
      Norfolk Island       3   21220010
      Camden               4   22230001
      Canberra             3   12220000
      Hobart               4   12230010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     6   11340000
      Casey                8   24221121
      Mawson              11   43332121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   1122 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jul     5    Quiet
01 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet 29 Jul, with 
some isolated Unsettled periods. The effects of the high speed 
coronal hole wind stream forecast yesterday have been very mild. 
Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days (30 Jul - 01 Aug), 
with some isolated Unsettled periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jul    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 29 Jul, with MUFs mostly 
near predicted monthly values. Some minor overnight MUF depressions 
were observed in N.Aus. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values next three days (30 Jul - 01 Aug).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    62400 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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