[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 12 issued 2345 UT on 26 Jul 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 27 09:45:25 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jul             28 Jul             29 Jul
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day, with only minor 
flaring (C1.4) from new region 1532(S20E67) at 1953UT. New region 
1531(N15W59) was numbered today. Solar activity is expected to 
be Very Low over the forecast period, with the chance of C-class 
flares. No possible geoeffective CMEs were observed during 26 
July. The solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day 
to be ~350km/s at the time of this report. The Bz component of 
the IMF fluctuated between +5 and -5nT during 26 July. Weak coronal 
hole and CME effects are expected during 29 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001001
      Darwin               1   11001101
      Townsville           5   12212212
      Learmonth            2   22011000
      Norfolk Island       2   21000011
      Camden               1   10001001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   22221100
      Mawson               2   21111000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3122 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jul     5    Quiet
28 Jul     6    Quiet
29 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during 26 Jul and 
are expected to be Quiet for 27 and 28 July. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to increase mildly during 29 July due to the combined 
effects of a weak coronal hole and a weak CME. Unsettled to Active 
levels are expected during 29 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
28 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mildly degraded at times during 26 
July. HF conditions should improve slowly over the next couple 
of days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jul    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jul    65    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Jul    70    Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mildly depressed at times otherwise mostly 
near predicted monthly values across the Australian region during 
26 July. MUFs are expected to be depressed 10-20% at times otherwise 
mostly normal for 27 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    83800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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