[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 12 issued 2332 UT on 25 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 26 09:32:22 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day, with no
significant flares. A filament eruption just west of central
meridian, and south of the equator produced a weak CME visible
in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 0230UT. STEREO imagery indicates
a predominant southward direction, with a small Earthward component.
A weak impact is possible on 29 Jul. Solar activity is expected
to be Low 26 Jul, with C-class flares possible. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remains elevated,
just below the 10pfu threshold. The solar wind speed declined
steadily over the UT day to be near 400km/s at the time of this
report. A high speed coronal hole wind stream is expected to
arrive late on 28 Jul or early 29 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 21221011
Darwin 3 21111011
Townsville 7 32221222
Learmonth 4 21221011
Norfolk Island 2 21120010
Camden 4 21221011
Canberra 2 21121000
Hobart 3 11221010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 10032000
Casey 9 33321221
Mawson 17 54422113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3321 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 5 Quiet
27 Jul 5 Quiet
28 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet 25 Jul. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions days 1 and 2 (26-27 Jul), and for the most part
of day 3 (28 Jul). A high speed coronal hole wind stream may
result in Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions from late
on day 3 (28 Jul).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jul Normal Normal Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 68 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 25 Jul. MUFs were mostly
near predicted monthly values in S.Aus/NZ and depressed to 25%
in N.Aus. Large variability was observed in the equatorial regions.
Ongoing mild MUF depressions are expected next three days, with
a gradual strengthening of the ionosphere. Solar proton flux
remains mildly enhanced so weak Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) may
be expected in the high latitude regions 26 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 520 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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