[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 12 issued 2348 UT on 21 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 22 09:48:27 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares were observed over the past
24 hours. There are 4 active regions on the disc but all have
been predominately stable and quiet. No large or magnetically
complex regions are on the disk; solar activity is expected to
stay mostly at Very Low levels for the next 3 days. Two minor
N- and W-directed CME's observed in LASCO C3 imagery over the
UT day were probably far-side events. Solar wind speed increased
slightly over the second half of the UT day to ~480 km/s at the
time of report issue. The IMF Bz fluctuated within +/-5nT until
~15UT. Thereafter activity decreased and maintained moderate(+5nT)
Northward bias for the remainder of the UT day. The effects of
a coronal hole may strengthen the solar wind stream for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet with an isolated Unsettled
period.
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22210221
Darwin 7 22210331
Townsville 8 22321322
Learmonth 7 22210331
Norfolk Island 4 22210220
Camden 4 11210221
Canberra 3 11210220
Hobart 3 11210220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 21110110
Casey 13 24421331
Mawson 18 53431421
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 1323 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet with an Unsettled
period between 1500-1800UT for the Australian region. Conditions
are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled with a chance for isolated
Active periods over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
23 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
24 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUF depressions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionospheric support over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over most of the Australian
region during the last 24 hours. Periods of Sporadic-E were observed
at times in the Northern region. Current depressed levels are
likely to persist for at least the next day with improvement
thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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