[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 12 issued 2349 UT on 20 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 21 09:49:19 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Very Low Very Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Visible regions on the solar disk have been predominately
stable and quiet during 20 July. No large or magnetically complex
regions are on the disk. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low for the next 3 days. There continue to be a chance of C-class
flares. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind data at around
04UT. This is possibly due to a glancing blow from the CME observed
on 17 July. The wind speed rose to only 450 Km/s before settling
back to around 400Km/s. The IMF Bz dropped to around -5nT during
this event. Solar wind speed is expected to continue settling
over the next 24 hours. A coronal hole high speed wind stream
is expected to mildly elevate the solar wind speed starting day
two of the forecast.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with
isolated Active periods.
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 14232322
Darwin 9 14122312
Townsville 15 24333333
Learmonth 11 24122422
Norfolk Island 8 13231311
Camden 10 14231321
Canberra 9 04131321
Hobart 11 04231422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
Macquarie Island 11 03142430
Casey 17 35333322
Mawson 29 36234435
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2211 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 7 Quiet
22 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions were generally Quiet
to Unsettled with an isolated Active period associated with the
step change in the IMF BZ around 04UT. Mostly Quiet conditions
are expected for the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to increase to Unsettled levels with a chance for Active periods
from 22 July as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal-fair Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal-fair Fair Poor
22 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
23 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
COMMENT: MUF depressions are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionospheric support over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
22 Jul 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 Jul 50 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions up to 30% were observed at most locations
in the Australian region overnight. Some periods of spread-F
were observed at S.Aus locations overnight, degrading HF conditions
there. Ongoing mild overnight depressions may be expected days
1 and 2 (21-22 July).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 91200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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