[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 12 issued 2348 UT on 19 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 20 09:48:49 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.7 0605UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Region 1520(West limb)produced a flare reaching a peak
level of M7.7 at 0558UT with an associated CME seen in LASCO
and STEREO imagery after 0600UT. This CME does not appear to
be Earth-directed. The grater than 10 MeV proton event witch
began on July 17 remains elevated with further enhancement after
the M7.7 flare. The proton flux at 50 and 100 MeV become elevated
following this event but it is in decline. Active regions 1524(S16W24)
and 1525(S22W23) produced some minor C-class flares during the
period. No large or magnetically complex regions are on the disk.
Activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days. ACE EPAM
data indicated an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 19/1125UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity. Solar
wind speed diminished from 450-400Km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating
between +/-4nT. Solar wind speed is expected to continue settling
over the forecast period. There is a chance that solar wind speed
may slightly increase late in the UT day on 20 July due to July
17 CME minor effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 3 12111101
Townsville 10 23323222
Learmonth 5 32211200
Norfolk Island 2 11111110
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 1 01111100
Hobart 4 11122210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 01031210
Casey 12 34322322
Mawson 8 32222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 8 Mostly Quiet with the chance of isolated Unsettled
levels.
21 Jul 7 Quiet
22 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3
days. Minor effect from July 17 CME may cause Unsettled conditions
late on 20 and early 21 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
22 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
COMMENT: MUF depressions are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionospheric support over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
21 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
22 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions of 20-30 observed local day and night
in most areas during the last 24 hours. Continued MUF depressions
of 10-30% are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 150000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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