[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 12 issued 2346 UT on 18 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 19 09:46:49 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: There was minor X-ray activity observed early in the
UT day with region 1520(S17W89) producing two C-class flares.
This region is classified as Eko and may produce further C-Class
flares and an M -Class flare is possible. All other regions on
the disk are either stable or declining. The grater than 10 Mev
proton event witch began on July 17 is still in progress. LASCO
C2 Images show a CME after 0600UT. STEREO images indicate it
is a farside event and is not expected to be geo-effective. Solar
wind speed steadily declined to ~400 Km/s. The Bz component of
the IMF fluctuated moderately to +/-5nT. Solar wind speed is
expected to continue settling over the forecast period with a
possible slight increase late on Jul 20 due to July 17 CME effects.
This CME is expected to produce only minor, if any, disturbance
at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11101011
Darwin 2 21100012
Townsville 10 23322223
Learmonth 4 32101011
Norfolk Island 2 1210001-
Camden 2 11101011
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 10101010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 11101000
Casey 14 34422232
Mawson 15 32312154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 18 4452 2422
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 5 Quiet
20 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3
days. Minor effect from July 17 CME may cause Unsettled conditions
late on 20 and early 21 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal-fair Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal-fair Fair Poor
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
COMMENT: Poor ionospheric support at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionospheric support over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
20 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
21 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over most regions during
the last 24 hours. Continuing poor ionospheric support Antarctic
region. Sporadic-E was observed for much of the night around
Hobart. Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days with
improvement thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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