[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 12 issued 2352 UT on 17 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 18 09:52:48 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
****CORRECTED VERSION****
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 1725UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 105/54 95/41
COMMENT: A long-duration flare reaching the M1 level originating
in active region 1520 (S17W75) was observed 1203-1904UT today.
Peak X-ray flux was observed at 1715UT. The proton flux above
10 MeV become elevated following this event. LASCO and STEREO
images show a CME associated with the flare activity, it is not
expected to be significantly geoeffective with material being
ejected southwards. C-class flares were also produced in region
1521(S19W85). New region 1524(S18E52) was numbered today. Solar
wind speed showed a minor upward trend from 450 to 500 km/s over
the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF maintained southward
bias of -10nT until 06UT after which it trended gradually positive.
The solar wind speed is expected to continue settling over days
one and two. There may be a weak disturbance from the abovementioned
CME effects day 3 of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 23421212
Darwin 7 23321112
Townsville 15 33432333
Learmonth 9 23421212
Norfolk Island 11 23521111
Camden 11 23521112
Canberra 9 23421112
Hobart 9 23421211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
Macquarie Island 30 24752211
Casey 12 33222423
Mawson 71 78633335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 40 6545 4534
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 7 Quiet
19 Jul 7 Quiet
20 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Moderate Southward IMF Bz during the early part of the
UT day resulted in Unsettled to Active conditions in the Australian
region. Conditions were generally Quiet over the later part of
the UT day. Major storm periods were observed in Antarctic region,
mainly during the first half of the UT day. Conditions should
decline to mostly Quiet days one and two of the forecast period.
Minor effects from July 17 CME might increase activity July 20.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
19 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
COMMENT: Poor ionospheric support at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionospheric support over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-20%.
19 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Widespread depressions observed throughout the Australian
region local night. Sporadic-E and Spread F conditions were observed
at times during 17 July which may have degraded HF conditions.
Continuing poor ionospheric support Antarctic region. Occasional
depressions to 20% possible at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 47300 K Bz: -8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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