[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 12 issued 2346 UT on 17 Jul 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 18 09:46:59 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.7    1725UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             105/54              95/41

COMMENT: A long-duration flare reaching the M1 level originating 
in active region 1520 (S17W75) was observed 1203-1904UT today. 
Peak X-ray flux was observed at 1715UT. The proton flux above 
10 MeV become elevated following this event. LASCO and STEREO 
images show a CME associated with the flare activity, it is not 
expected to be significantly geoeffective with material being 
ejected southwards. C-class flares were also produced in region 
1521(S19W85). New region 1524(S18E52) was numbered today. Solar 
wind speed showed a minor upward trend from 450 to 500 km/s over 
the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF maintained southward 
bias of -10nT until 06UT after which it trended gradually positive. 
The solar wind speed is expected to continue settling over days 
one and two. There may be a weak disturbance from the abovementioned 
CME effects day 3 of the forecast period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23421212
      Darwin               7   23321112
      Townsville          15   33432333
      Learmonth            9   23421212
      Norfolk Island      11   23521111
      Camden              11   23521112
      Canberra             9   23421112
      Hobart               9   23421211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    30   24752211
      Casey               12   33222423
      Mawson              71   78633335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        27
           Planetary             40   6545 4534     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul     7    Quiet
19 Jul     7    Quiet
20 Jul    10    Quiet

COMMENT: Moderate Southward IMF Bz during the early part of the 
UT day resulted in Unsettled to Active conditions in the Australian 
region. Conditions were generally Quiet over the later part of 
the UT day. Major storm periods were observed in Antarctic region, 
mainly during the first half of the UT day. Conditions should 
decline to mostly Quiet days one and two of the forecast period. 
Minor effects from July 17 CME might increase activity July 20.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor
19 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor
20 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor

COMMENT: Poor ionospheric support at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jul    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Weak ionospheric support over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-20%.
19 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
20 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Widespread depressions observed throughout the Australian 
region local night. Sporadic-E and Spread F conditions were observed 
at times during 17 July which may have degraded HF conditions. 
Continuing poor ionospheric support Antarctic region. Occasional 
depressions to 20% possible at all latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    47300 K  Bz:  -8 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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