[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 12 issued 2346 UT on 22 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 23 09:46:31 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares were observed over the past
24 hours. Region 1526(S18E39) produced a C1.4 flare yesterday
at 2324UT. Two new sunspots, yet to be numbered rotated onto
the sun visible disk early in the UT day. Solar activity is expected
to stay mostly at Very Low levels with a chance for C-class flares
for the next 3 days, though there is chance of higher activity
from previously active region 1515 which is due to return during
the forecast period. No significant CME activity was observed
over the period. ACE data shows that the solar wind speed was
moderately disturbed with the wind speed ranging between 450-500Km/s
and the IMF Bz mostly positive until ~0300UT,then mostly negative
to -5nT between 0300-0600UT before trending north again for the
remainder of the reporting period. Solar wind parameters are
likely to be disturbed 23-25 July due to a coronal hole high
speed stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 12232001
Darwin 6 13232002
Townsville 9 23332122
Learmonth 5 22232001
Norfolk Island 5 1-232001
Camden 5 12232001
Canberra 4 02232001
Hobart 4 02232001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 11 02444001
Casey 10 34232121
Mawson 21 15532115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3221 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled
early in the UT day likely due to the sustained negative Bz period.
Conditions declined to Quiet later in the UT day. Conditions
are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled with a chance for isolated
Active periods over the next 3 days due to a coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with the chance of slight depressions at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Generally poor ionospheric support over the
UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs returned to near predicted monthly values with
some depressed periods of up 25%. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values for the next 3 days with a degree of
variability. Mildly depressed periods are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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