[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 12 issued 2345 UT on 12 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 13 09:45:04 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.4 1653UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity reached high level on Jul 12 with active
regions 1520 (S17E06) and 1521 (S22W07) producing a number of
C-class flares early in the UT day and region 1520 producing
an X1.4 level flare at 1649UT. The X-level event had an associated
Type II radio sweep with estimated velocity 1268 km/s. Also associated
with this event was an 800 sfu tenflare. Limited available solar
imagery indicates a possibly Earth-directed CME first visible
after 18UT. Solar proton fluxes have elevated to near event-level
threshold, although no significant high-latitude absorption yet
observed. Solar wind speed declined gradually over the UT day
from 500 to 400 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
+/-5nT over the first half of the UT day before settling to near-neutral
values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 23331101
Darwin 7 23331101
Townsville 14 33342323
Learmonth 7 33330100
Norfolk Island 8 23331111
Camden 9 23341102
Canberra 5 22330000
Hobart 8 23340000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
Macquarie Island 28 22650---
Casey 10 342211--
Mawson 42 566342--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3333 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 5 Quiet
14 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Unsettled at low
to mid latitudes between 03-12UT, and Quiet at other times. At
high latitudes, minor to major storm periods were observed, mainly
during the first half of the UT day. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
day one of the forecast period. A significant solar flare observed
late on Jul 12 had an associated CME which may impact the Earth
on day two or three, bringing Active to Storm level geomagnetic
conditions. Arrival time analysis is still ongoing for this event.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% at times during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night and after
local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Hobart spread-F 10-12 and 16-21UT. Sporadic-E
12-15UT. Perth mild spread-F local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Generally weak ionospheric support over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-30%.
COMMENT: Propagation conditions mostly normal Equatorial/Aus
regions with mild night-time MUF depressions. Continuing poor
ionospheric support Antarctic region. Chance of isolated short-wave
fadeout events. Possible significant disturbance days two and
three due to CME impact from the X-class flare observed late
on Jul 12. Analysis of this event is ongoing.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 504 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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