[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 12 issued 2333 UT on 11 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 12 09:33:31 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Only a few C-class flares observed over the period with
the largest being a C9.9 level event from region 1521 (S22W07)
at 0831UT. This region maintains potential for M- to X-class
activity. A filament eruption was observed in the NE quadrant
around 0930UT. This was followed by and probably associated with
a narrow NE-directed CME seen in LASCO C3 imagery after 12UT.
STEREO imagery suggests this CME was mostly directed N of the
ecliptic. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated probably
due to two favourably positioned narrow coronal holes. The Bz
component of the IMF fluctuated moderately to +/-5nT until 09UT,
then sustained mild negative bias until 19UT. After this time
Bz showed moderate negative bias of -5nT until the time of report
issue.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 22331112
Darwin 7 22331111
Townsville 13 33332233
Learmonth 8 -2331122
Norfolk Island 5 22321011
Camden 7 12331112
Canberra 5 12331001
Hobart 10 12442111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
Macquarie Island 10 12442111
Casey 8 33321112
Mawson 35 45432237
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15 4333 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 7 Quiet
13 Jul 5 Quiet
14 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid latitudes
was Quiet with Unsettled periods 09-12UT. High latitudes were
Unsettled with occasional Minor Storm periods over the UT day.
Expect similar conditions day one, becoming Quiet days two and
three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed 30% 14-21UT. Strong sporadic-E around
local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed to 30% 09-10, 14-16, 23UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Darwin depressed to 30% 15-18UT. Periods of
sporadic-E around local dawn. Other stations
depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Generally poor ionospheric support over the
UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values / depressed 10
to 20%
13 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values / depressed 10
to 20 %
14 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values / depressed 10
to 20%
COMMENT: Widespread depressions of 20-30% observed throughout
the region local night. Expect similar propagation conditions
next three days with the chance of isolated short-wave fadeout
events. Continuing poor ionospheric support Antarctic region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 141000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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